tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20257999.post5191340230317867622..comments2024-03-29T11:40:46.477+03:00Comments on Life in Israel: Will Obama cost the Democrats the Jewish vote?Rafi G.http://www.blogger.com/profile/00699851287106903971noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20257999.post-32853088868505838692010-03-17T00:50:48.056+02:002010-03-17T00:50:48.056+02:00Rafi: 76-70% is a major drop if Jews were a signif...Rafi: 76-70% is a major drop if Jews were a significant portion of the population; for instance, Obama's gain from about 88%-11 in 2004 to 96%-3 in 2008 of the black vote led him to victory in the state of North Carolina (where that 16 point net gain among blacks translated to a 3 point gain overall)<br /><br />But with Jews, even if something Israel-related drops the Jewish vote to 60-40 Republican [no candidate will support outlawing circ or religious education in the near future, and frankly Alaska would veto because they don't want to share oil rebate money, so leave at 'destruction of Israel'] it would at most be a net loss of like 0.4% (due to the counteraction and vote-picking up from far-leftists and generally domestic-issue right-wing Arabs/Muslims pleased with the 'destruction of Israel' stance), which, since Jewish strongholds are heavily Democratic among non-Jews, would be not so meaningful.Meirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09750644838339021199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20257999.post-12902138433796689672010-03-16T16:28:46.583+02:002010-03-16T16:28:46.583+02:00Rafi - I think you wanted to say that people are d...Rafi - I think you wanted to say that people are disenchanted with Obama, not disenfranchised.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20257999.post-13999559559702461452010-03-16T15:17:28.039+02:002010-03-16T15:17:28.039+02:00listen to what you said - from 76-85, and you dont...listen to what you said - from 76-85, and you dont think it would go less than 70, no matter what he would have done.<br /><br />a drop from even 76% to 70% is a major drop.Rafi G.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00699851287106903971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20257999.post-34520955023243104552010-03-16T15:13:06.371+02:002010-03-16T15:13:06.371+02:00The Jewish vote has consistently been 76% - 85% pr...The Jewish vote has consistently been 76% - 85% pro-democrat. Further, most "Jewish" strongholds are in very blue state very blue city areas - major democrat strongholds.<br /><br />I don't believe the rate would fall below 70% even if the President was shown leading a rally against Jewish education, outlawing circumcision, and for the destruction of Israel and relocation of the Jewish citizens to Alaska.Akivahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13042484533217272945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20257999.post-29407069685147726932010-03-16T14:23:57.929+02:002010-03-16T14:23:57.929+02:00unfortunately many young liberal, american jews ar...unfortunately many young liberal, american jews are just as anti-israel as the obamah administration. I don't think he will lose because of this (health reform, however, will kill him).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com