Likud starting to target Shas voters

In recent elections, Benjamin Netanyahu has famously targeted the voters of right wing parties such as Habayit Hayehudi in the final days of the campaign and each time decimated them, leaving them with far less than polls had predicted and making the Likud a larger than predicted party. Other parties, such as Yemin Hechadash, missed the minimum threshold (at least partially if not entirely because of this). The slang for this has become "drinking their mandates" with a big straw.

Yet, in all those recent elections, Netanyahu did not take the same tactic with the Haredi parties and never targeted any campaigning directly to their voters. They supported him fully and he returned their loyalty by not decimating them the way he decimated others. I don't know if that is why he did not target their voters, because while they have other choices (while Habayit Hayehudi really doesn't) they still were unwavering in their support for Netanyahu , or if it was for others reasons, but he did not.

In a video for the campaign (at the 1:55 mark) yesterday Netanyahu spoke about the need to vote for the Likud. He explained that there is no such thing as "two votes" and voting for one party and essentially voting for Netanyahu, but if you want Netanyahu you have to vote Likud. He gave an example of people thinking they can vote Shas and that is also a vote for Netanyahu, and he rejected it and said you have to vote Netanyahu if you want Netanyahu and not for any other party.



This is very directed at Shas, besides for them being mentioned explicitly in name, as they have been campaigning, this election and last, at a vote for them also being a vote for Netanyahu, as if there are two ballots. Others have expressed their support for Netanyahu, even unwavering support, but nobody else has spoken about the two ballots and a vote for them being a vote for Netanyahu as Shas has.

Shas is upset about this, but nobody "owns" voters in an elections, and while they might think they own them and nobody else has a right to campaign to them, that is not the case. They just need to make a better case to Shas voters to stay with Shas (and UTJ to stay with UTJ, etc) than they needed to previously.

So, is this a change in policy? it seems Netanyahu has given up on the expectation of forming, or drive to form, a government based on the right bloc? It seems he expects that the right bloc will not achieve the minimum of 61 needed for a government and it is unlikely that Lapid and Gantz will split allowing him to bring in Gantz with the right bloc. So, his only tactic would be to forgo the attempts of 61 right wing mandates and instead once again focus more on being the largest party, even at the expense of the bloc, and then he would be able to form the "unity" government with Gantz/Lapid and other parties willing to join.

Another option is that this is retaliation of sorts and a warning. It seems that Shas is "drinking" the voters of Moshe Kahlon and Orli Levi Abuksis away from the Likud. The Likud thinks those voters should not naturally vote Likud but Shas is targeting them with a social-right campaign and attracting them. Because Shas is campaigning to potential Likud voters, Netanyahu is basically saying I can target Shas voters just as well.

It turns out the accusation thrown out by Netanyahu at others, a vote for x is a vote for Gantz, is now on him as well - a vote for Netanyahu will be a vote for Gantz. The converse takeaway is that Netanyahu is contradicting himself. If there are not, even conceptually, "two votes", a vote for Lieberman is not a vote for Gantz just like a vote for Shas is not a vote for Netanyahu.

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