Netanyahu and Ben Gvir are reportedly working on a deal by which Netanyahu would help Otzma Yehudit pass the threshold in the upcoming election, and in exchange, Ben Gvir would commit to not running in the fourth election, should it be necessary, if Otzma does not pass despite Netanyahu's efforts.
The deal recognizes that Netanyahu understands he won't get Ben Gvir to back down this time around, so it is more worthwhile to try to help him get in rather than fail. It is also unclear from the various reports whether this was proposed by Ben Gvir or by Netanyahu, but either way the reports have it likely happening.
According to the deal, Netanyahu will meet with the Dati Leumi rabbis and impress upon them the importance of voting Otzma to help them get in. As well, Netannyahu will try to do the same with UTJ, impressing upon them the importance and the suggestion that they instruct some of their smaller hassidic sects to vote Otzma instead of UTJ. In exchange, as mentioned, Ben Gvir will commit to not running in a possible fourth election if he does not get in now.
sources: Kikar, Ynet, Kipa
If the deal happens, I am not sure how they will determine if Netanyahu put forth efforts in good faith and genuinely tried to make a real effort. If Otzma does not pass the threshold despite a deal, Ben Gvir might easily be able to say that Netanyahu only made a half-assed effort.
Also, I do not see UTJ agreeing to this. They have been on the cusp of the 8th mandate, and instructing small groups of UTJ voters to vote for another party would gaurantee they don't get that 8th. Also, UTJ has never agreed to give anything up for external support. They have canvassed for external support but never agreed to giving away a Knesset seat or ministerial position in exchange for that support.
On the other hand, I do see Dati Leumi rabbinic leadership agreeing, possibly. They are in a shambles and nobody there seems to be able to work with anybody else. The various groups each get upset about minor things and blow up the entire thing without really seeing the bigger picture. Without unity in the first place, I can easily see some rabbis agreeing to such a deal rather than strengthen their own list.
Netanyahu is the big enigma. Once again, he gets others to do his dirty work to save the right. Netanyahu has not offered to instruct some Likud voters to vote Otzma. he is trying to get other parties to do so. Whether they agree or not remains to be seen, but that is besides the point. How he repeatedly does this is amazing.
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Bibi is going to continue to bash Yamina to push their voters to Otzma. He will also have to bash Yamina to push some of their voters to Likud to make sure that they come out ahead of Blue & White.
ReplyDeleteOops. That is what he would have done anyways.
If Bibi spent more time trying to win the election, instead of trying to get the Bibi-Bloc to win we would have a Government.
1st Election: Torpedoing New Right
2nd Election: Rallying to increase the Arab Voter turn out.
Both: Not trying to negotiate a solution to the YB/Haredi conflict. Not taking the path of least resistant and finding a way to work with Blue & White.
Is Bibi going to hold out for 4th elections with the hope that the Bibi-Bloc might pick up 2 more mandates.
personally I think Bibi is doing this to delay everything. The longer it drags on, the longer he remains int he PM seat, guaranteed, and the longer it helps him with his legal troubles.
DeleteYou're right - by endorsing Ben Gvir Bibi is encouraging moderate voters to move to Blue and White. His campaign should be about encouraging moderates to vote for Likud, and if the cost is that some of the more right-wing voters move to Yemina, that still strengthens the right wing bloc.
DeleteBibi seems to be doing everything he can to get voters long-term Likud like me to vote against him. I happily voted Likud for over 15 years, but now I am torn between Blue-White and Yemina. The only hesitation I have about voting Yemina is that it may be interpreted as an endorsement of Bibi
There is no way Otzma gets over the threshold. They're just too far behind. (And no, being a Kahanist, I'm not happy about that, but I will not vote for them.)
ReplyDeleteIf Bibi was creative, he could think of solid promises he could make to Ben Gvir to get him to drop out. Say, eliminate the law allowing for disqualification of parties. Legalize Kach. Eliminate administrative detention. (Something close to Ben Gvir's heart, considering his job as well.) These are all things that should happen anyway.
Ben Gvir openly supports terrorists, not only by defending them in court as a lawyer, but had a picture of a terrorist on the wall in his home.
ReplyDeleteOver the past year, Bibi has been trying to bring this terrorist supporter into the Israeli mainstream which is why Bibi must go. We Jews should have zero sympathy or support for terrorists or their supporters.
M.Sedley - who do you mean by 'terrorist'? If you are speaking of a Jewish son who loves the Land and abides by H's Torah, then you are demonizing a real fellow Jew! When one says 'terrorist' in this age where there is real terrorism, how dare you compare a Torah Jew to these vile murderers?
ReplyDelete