I blame Benny Gantz and Kachol Lavan for this fiasco.
At best they ran a lackluster and uninspiring campaign. Regardless of that, Gantz found himself with an opportunity to finally take on a killer attitude, similar to Bibi, and do whatever it takes. Gantz jumped at the opportunity and reversed a promise he made, a major promise, not to rely on the Joint Arab List to form a government, but to form a government regardless of them.
Gantz made a couple of bad mistakes when he reversed his decision.
Breaking his promise on its own was not the end of the world - all the politicians break all sorts of promises. Gantz could have gotten away with breaking his promise had he explained the necessity of this move to the public. Perhaps he thought the people would understand that he has found himself with no moves but one and it is necessary, but this was a major, unprecedented, change, and it should have been explained rather than assumed and taken for granted.
His bigger mistake might have been not checking with his potential coalition partners if this major unprecedented move would be acceptable to them. Did Gantz just assume that because he found a way and decided to take it that everyone else in his corner would play along, even the more right wing members? he should have sat down with each potential dissenter and spoken about it before making such a major announcement. He should have checked if he had the support or not, and if not to try to persuade them of his strategy and get them on board. Did he really think Orly Levi Abuksis, Yoaz Hendel, Zvi Hauser and Chilik Tropper, and perhaps others, would just play along with such a major shift without even talking about it first?
Gantz took on a killer attitude and did what he thought it would take to get the job done, but in the process he alienated some of his own partners - partners he already does not have enough of. He might still get them on board but in the meantime Gantz once again looks like a bumbling inexperienced fool.
If we end up going to another round of elections, as seems likely, this is going to hurt Gantz and Kachol Lavan deeply. The other option right now is that a few of the MKs from Kachol Lavan and Orli Levi Abuksis and Amir Peretz abandon Gantz and run into the arms of Bibi to save themselves and thereby help Netanyahu form a government coalition.
If we head to elections, Bibi already hurt Kachol Lavan badly in the last elections, and with the public, both from within and from outside of his natural supporters, upset at Gantz and his potential partners, Gantz will likely continue losing support. If we end up in another round of elections, Kachol Lavan will have to replace Gantz as the head of the party. He has burned his bridges, weak as they already were.
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If (G-d forbid) there is a forth round, Blue-White would be smart to split back into 2 or 3 smaller parties. This would mean that they would almost certainly be smaller than Likud, but if Yaalon ran on his own as a rightest party, he may be able to take traditional Likud voters who are no longer support Bibi, but aren't prepared to vote for Gantz or Lapid as they are perceived as too far left or too anti-religious.
ReplyDeleteAfter the election, if Yaalon nominates Gantz as PM, it could mean that Gantz would still be asked to form a government first, even if his party is not the biggest, but would mean that there is a center party that could legitimately move to either camp to help someone form a government and break the stalemate (in the pre-Bibi era, there were alway center parties, including the religious parties, who would happily sit with either Likud or Labour, this guaranteed that SOMEONE would be able to form a coalition)
If there is a 4th round, something has to change, there is no point in going back to elections with all the parties with the same configuration and leadership as the past 3 times.