the path to keeping Gantz out of the PM seat goes through the budget

The Supreme Court is hearing a petition that could put Benny Gantz's position in the government as "replacement Prime Minister" at risk and lead to elections. That might be the most immediate threat to Gantz's role, but it isn't the greatest.

Journalist Amit Segal revealed a few days ago that the path to Netanyahu not giving up the premiership in a year and a half to Gantz goes through the budget. Segal explained that if the 2021 budget is not passed by the end of March, the government will automatically expire. That means Israel will go to elections, like it or not, and Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister through the election period and the rotation agreement will be dissolved along with the government.

Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to pass a two-year budget now, so Segal's doomsday (for Gantz) scenario should not even be a serious concern. Two-Year budgets are not uncommon and Israel has goen that route a number of times already. With it solidified in the coalition agreement, it seems pretty solid, though it still needs to actually be passed.

So why is this such a great risk?

MK Moshe Gafni (UTJ) announced, as head of the Knesset Finance Committee, that he thinks Israel should only pass a one-year budget now and save next year's budget passing for next year, and he is going to push for this to happen. Gafni, reasonably I think, thinks it is not reasonable to pass a two-year budget at this point, with all the uncertainties ahead of Israel. With the possibility of Corona returning for a second wave and all the other unknowns, we should leave next years budget to next year.

As reasonable as that sounds, it goes in direct opposition to the coalition agreements that explicitly commit them to passing a two-year budget now. And they just signed that agreement weeks ago. It is not as if something new just happened that sheds a new light on the matter.

So, the only way Amit Segal's doomsday scenario could happen is if Netanyahu accepts Gafni's push and then in 2021 lets the budget bill lay stagnant without being passed until the end of March.

It makes one wonder if Gafni is acting at Netanyahu's behest.

sources: behadrei, JDN, Kol Hai News, Srugim

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