the real effect of the Smotritch - Ben Gvir agreement

the deal signed between Smotritch and Ben Gvir (Ichud and Otzma) is likely to have two significant effects.

The first will be to help PM Netanyahu. If the united party passes the threshold, this will be a big assist to Netanyahu in forming a coalition and achieving the necessary 61 mandates. While the Bennett side of the National Religious says they will not recommend or support Netanyahu, Smotritch has been more pro-Netanyahu..

The second will be to hurt UTJ. Many Haredim, especially the more nationalist Haredim and more modern Haredim have supported Ben Gvir and even Smotritch. Many of those might have voted UTJ in the past because Ben Gvir was not seen as a realistic vote. Now with Ben Gvir seeming (as of now) as possibly realistic, those voters might abandon UTJ and vote for Ben Gvir.

Besides for that, UTJ (the Degel faction, at least) has campaigned heavily among the Chardal communities in recent elections. UTJ knew that the Chardal communities were not happy with the Bennett led party representing the DL, and took advantage by campaigning to that crowd and pulling many of those voters. Now with Smotritch and Ben Gvir running their own party separate from Bennett, they will likely take most of those voters back from UTJ.

Degel might not be affected. With their new deal with Aguda, the fourth Degel candidate holds the 7th joint slot - Pindrus will pretty definitely get in this time. It is the 8th seat that might suffer, and that is the chassidic side of UTJ.

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