This is a work in progress and is, of course, just my opinions. Feel free to correct me or argue. I might have an impression of this or that campaign that isnt necessarily accurate just because I might not have been exposed to enough of a party's campaign materials
I won't comment on the campaigns of the Arab parties because I just dont know anything about them. I have seen almost nothing of any of those parties and don't know anything about what they are doing to canvass for votes or even to get people out to the ballot boxes.
Habayit Hayehudi - this is low hanging fruit. Their campaign has been lousy. Ayelet Shaked has jumped from partner to partner looking for the one to run with that would get her some traction, and none of them did. She repeatedly begged for help from Netanyahu trying to get him to think he needs her votes to get the 61 magic number of seats, and honestly her repeated pleading was understandable but pathetic. Nobody will be surprised if she drops out by the end of the week. As I mentioned the other day, this situation is somewhat sad and while she made her mistakes, she was also the target and victim of right wing attacks on her and her party that she couldnt overcome. It would be bittersweet to see them suffer and not be able to form a government because of what they did to her.
Hatzionut Hadatit - they are the hot item right now. We dont know how it will actually translate into votes, but according to everything we know, they are the hot item. They ran a good campaign, avoiding anything distracting and messy. Ben Gvir and Smotritch both look like they grew up and matured a lot and are no longer the hotheads they used to be. They have run a good campaign without giving the press reason to scream racism all that much and without giving anyone justification to try to disqualify them (though of course there is plenty in their history for that, but little in their present)
Likud - their campaign seems pareve to me. Nobody works as hard as Netanyahu, but I dont see any killer campaign from them this time, even though some of their ads have been among the best of the season. I dont know if their electorate is tired of them, tired of elections, if Likud is just preaching to the choir or what, but I dont see much traction form their campaign. To me it looks like they would bring in the same 30 mandates even without having a campaign - the campaign doesnt seem to be adding much. We'll see on election day if his efforts to get more people to go vote, and fewer Arabs, works or not,, but from a campaign perspective it looks kind of stale.
Shas - Shas is running a great campaign, maybe the best of all the parties. They are hitting hard on both the traditional aspect of Judaism with their Sefardic base and also on the issue of inflation and cost of living. They are focused and targeted and are running an impressive campaign
UTJ - this is hard to tell. Their campaign is only external in a minor way. They are so sectorial that they barely try to attract new voters. If you are not Haredi, they dont work hard to make you think about voting for them. They have a lot of focus on trying to prevent some voters from leaving to vote for other parties, and they also try to whip up the passion in their electorate so that voters who dont or might not vote at all will think it is too dangerous for them to not vote this time. A lot of what they do to try to whip up the passion in their voters is to rehash all their anger at Lieberman and Lapid and Gantz and Matan Kahane and others so it basically feels like a hate campaign, but they arent trying to campaign against Lapid/Gantz/Kahane/Lieberman - they are using them as props to campaign for themselves among the people who might care. Hate campaigns are dirty, and they use it expertly even though they scream abotu everybody else who might say somethign against the Haredi community as being hateful.
Hamachaneh Hamamlachti - boring and dull. I dont see much of a campaign. Netanyahu and the others in his bloc have given them so much material on a golden tray but they fail to know how to use it - and this is true of this party as well as Lapid's party and Labor and Lieberman (though Lieberman is the only one who uses it a bit). Just uninspiring in general.
Yesh Atid - they seem quiet but also seem to be working quietly behind the scenes, working to get out voters on their side, working to get their name around without a splashy campaign. This seems similar to previous campaigns. I dont know how good of a job they are doing as it is hard to see.
Yisrael Beyteyniu - good campaign, though he got a bit too personal with the Netanyahu attacks. Pundits have been claiming the demise of Lieberman for several campaigns now saying they are decreasing in numbers, their voters are dying, etc yet Lieberman has continuously returned with about the same number of mandates every time, so I dont know if anyone knows how to predict and evaluate his campaigns. A lot of his focus is on his successes in the Finance Ministry with reforms and balancing the budget. He has mostly stayed away this time from saying anything too incendiary against Haredim. .
Labor - dont see much from them. They seemed to be fighting for their lives, trying to prevent Lapid from cannibalizing them.
Meretz - similar to Labor, but I do see Zahava Galon out their more than Merav Michaeli. I think their voters are more extreme Left than Labor's so they are less at risk of crossing to Lapid, making Meretz a little more secure.
Abir Kara - I have read that he has gained momentum this past week, but I havent seen anything realistic about his campaign, which is a shame. God person, good party with the explicit focus of working on the economy. He probably should have joined up with a larger party.
Yaron Zelicha - going nowhere, never was. focused on economy only and probably should have joined a larger party, but he had nothing of a campaign anyway
Hadar Muchtar- hard to tell. She has and is still making a lot of noise and using gimmicks to keep herself in the news. She claims to be close and is hoping to convince enough people of that that they decide to give her a boost over the finish line. Whether it will be enough or not we will see. I wouldnt be surprised if she gets in, as noise on social media is really today's style and she might get enough young votes form it, though obviously she made a lot of early mistakes.
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