Nov 3, 2022

possibly a stable government

The incoming government coalition, if it should be established in the way everyone is expecting to be made up up of Likud, Shas, UTJ, and Hatzionut Hadatit, definitely has the potential to be stable and last a long time. I dont want to say they will serve a full term because that is rare, but it looks like even that might be possible, if there is harmony and cooperation between the member parties.

These parties campaigned together mostly very well, there is a shared purpose, there are common interests, and there is a significant enough majority that one or two frustrated MKs wont be able to topple it. All these are ingredients for a stable government that can last a long time.

Those are ingredients, but they are not a guarantee. There is no guarantee. Anythign can happen.

For example, Ben Gvir or Avi Maoz can attempt to pass extreme legislation that Likud doesnt aree to. That happens a couple of times and Ben Gvir can decide to leave the government saying Bibi wont let him implement the policies the people want. Maybe a conflict arises bteween Gafni and Ben Gvir over Har Habayit, or something else. Maybe a conflict between parties about different reforms or reversing policies form the previous government, or maybe they fight about the appointment of new Chief Rabbis, or it could be anything. There wont be a crisis after one incident, but if they start bickering and Ben Gvir starts to feel frustrated that he is being managed and handled and kept in a corner, it is not unrealistic that he could bring down the government.

So, it looks like the government should be stable, and maybe we will have some quiet for a while, but there is no guarantee.



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