who gets what

The rumors are flying regarding the ongoing coalition negotiations as to who will take what ministry in a Netanyahu government. Little of what is being "leaked" to the press can be believed - take everything with a grain of salt. If something is being leaked, whether a demand, an offer or a rumor, it is for the purpose of negotiating tactics - bringing up the price, bringing down the price, affecting someone else's position, etc.

That being said, here is what I think should happen (not what I think will happen).

Deri has been super loyal to Netanyahu and was one of the architects of the electoral success, alongside Netanyahu, so you have to assume Netanyahu wont try to pull a fast one over Deri, and even if he wanted to Deri is shrewd enough to not be Netanyahu's pawn. UTJ and Hatzionut Hadatit were also loyal to Netanyahu but they each made trouble along the way and gave Netanyahu some heartache and worry and he had to work hard to keep them in line, so he doesn't "owe" them as much, though obviously he needs them to form his government - this just means that while he might not try to bring Shas down to size and minimize his offer to them, he will try to knock down the demands of UTJ and Hatzionut Hadatit as much as possible. He has had much greater success controlling the Dati Leumi parties in the past (not including Bennett, to a certain extent), so one has to assume his focus will be on working them over as usual.

In my opinion, Aryeh Deri needs to demand for the Finance Ministry, and take it if offered. The Finance Ministry is actually a horrible position for him to be in, but considering his campaign focusing on the economy, cost of living and all that fun stuff, this has to be his direction in the new government. Deri claimed he will fix the economy, he campaigned fabulously on that issue, he pretty much has to take the Finance Ministry. How can he possibly run back to the Ministry of Interior (the other position he is reportedly considering), important as it may be, when he has been focusing on the economy in his campaign.

Smotritch would possibly be decent in the Finance Ministry but his issue in the campaign was not the economy (not mostly at least) but Justice Minister or Defense Minister might be what he needs to take. I have a hard time believing Bibi will give him the Defense Ministry, but that is the rumor right now, but Justice might be appropriate as well.

The Religious Affairs Ministry needs to be fought over between Shas and the Dati Leumi parties as is the custom, as each wants to get jobs for their people. The difference between them is nominal, especially with the Dati Leumi sector represented now by Smotritch being more on the Chardal side, they are awfully close to Shas and UTJ on religion/state issues. So whoever gets it, policy wont be different form the other candidate, for the most part, just the identities of the people running it.

UTJ wont take anything overly significant because Degel is still not taking ministries and they mostly focus on ghelping themselves, while of course they help others along the way - so they take positions that can have more of a direct effect on their communities rather than Israel in general. They might take deputy position in the Public Transportation Ministry, in Housing (unless Aguda takes that as a full ministry), heading some committees, etc - influential positions for them but mostly not top-tier level positions in the government.

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