The terms of the deal as made public that is on the table now is very difficult. As I have said before, I am happy it is not my decision to make. The main overriding principle in my mind is that the war can always continue later after a break, while the longer we postpone getting the hostages out the fewer will remain alive, the fewer will remain retrievable, so we probably should get them out now if a serious deal arises, even with bad terms, though the terms we were made aware of were really bad.
But Netanyahu is stuck. If he makes the deal, he likely loses his government (if Ben Gvir and Smotritch follow through with their threats). if he doesnt make the deal, the quagmire likely gets worse (nobody likes a long war so people will get more and more upset about it as time goes on, plus the hostage situation) until one day when he finally declares we have won the war. While extending the war seems to help him stay in power, that may not work much longer, as people wont put up with it at some point, and a long war is just bad - people dont really have the staying power en masse.
After thinking about it for a bit, I think Netanyahu should make this his stand, if there is truth to the reports right now that a deal is being imminently decided on. I think Netanyahu's best move, if his decision is to go to a deal, or maybe that his decision should be to go to the deal, and immediately take it to elections. Instead of waiting for Smotritch or Ben Gvir, Netanyahu should announce the hostage deal and that he is dismantling the government and going to elections. Then he can run on his concern for the hostages along with having put together a popular and successful war that still needs to be finished (of course he will say only he can finish it, etc).
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It's his own fault for letting the "Bring them back!" crowd gain the upper hand in PR.
ReplyDeleteThe message to the Arabs and to them hostage families should always have been an uncompromising "We will agree to ceasefire in return for the release of all hostages right now along with the surrender of Hamas leaders and those leaders being turned over to us. When you are ready to accept our terms, give us a call."
Oh and pull all of your troops out of Gaza, open up the borders, and never fly planes/drones over OUR territory.
DeleteThe use of the word "bring," as if it was Israel's responsibility, doesn't help either.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, but I think it was intentional from the hostage families.
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