I dont know if it will or wont happen, but here is what I would suggest, were anyone involved going to ask me:
As I recall, Hezbollah tied themselves to Hamas since the beginning of the war. They started firing on Israel on October 8th and claimed it was in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians. Anytime an agreement was proposed, Hezbollah said they would only agree to a ceasefire if it included an end to the war in Gaza as part of a ceasefire with Hamas.
If Hezbollah wants a ceasefire now, I would suggest Israel respond that they accept Hezbollah's statements from the past year connecting them to Hamas and will only agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah if it includes a ceasefire with Hamas, and a ceasefire with Hamas will only happen if Hamas surrenders and dismantles itself and returns the hostages to Israel.
If Hezbollah is finally feeling battered enough and wants to end this, let the pressure be on them to find a way to pressure Hamas to end it in Gaza too. All roads lead through Iran so it should not be too difficult to find a way to do this (though it might not be too easy to persuade Hamas at first) - they just have to go back to the head of the octopus and make that decision. Iran is feeling a bit battered as well. Their recent statements have changed their tune from things like we will destroy Israel and America to we just want to live in peace and not fight with anybody but it is Israel that is destabilizing the region. They clearly would love a way out of this, and Hezbollah can offer that.
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There is a fundamental error here.
ReplyDeleteHezbollah and Hamas are not independent operators. They are proxies for Iran which doesn't care a whit about Gaza, Lebanon or even Hezbollah and Hamas. All they want is to harm Israel and if fighting to the last terrorist is how they do it, they'll do it.
Hezbollah could be begging for a surrender but until Tehran signs off, it simply won't happen.