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Jan 6, 2015
The Likud moves forward
in Netanyahu's speech last night opening the Likud electoral campaign, Bibi announced a major focus of his will now be changing the system of elections. He wants to somehow change the system to a two-party system, and claims to move on this right after his next government will be formed. The two parties, he says, will be the two large parties, Likud and Labor, the largest of which will form the government. The government will not fall on simple coalition squabbles and threats but will need an extreme majority and will only be allowed to happen on extreme issues.
1. I am in favor of such a system. I always have been. Our government clearly needs more stability. The problem is that I don't see how he can possibly form a coalition on this issue when his future coalition partners would basically in effect putting themselves out of business (or at least curbing their own influence a lot).
The only way I can see this actually happening is by forming, after the elections, a national unity government with Labor, and leaving all the other parties out (or at most keeping them as minor partners). This might not portend well for the Haredi parties that are extremely optimistic and hopeful about their being major partners in the next government.
2. At the same time, Feiglin resigned from the Likud. I don't see how his political career can be anything but over at this point, though he may surprise us all. Resigning from the Likud and forming his own party, or joining another party, is against everything he has said over the past 15 years.
If he is now saying that his work of the past 15-20 was entirely wrong, why would anybody (but his most dedicated supporters) follow him in the future - maybe his new approach is just as wrong? he has clearly shown, by his own admission, poor judgement.
And even if he does, and he pulls in a large majority of his supporters, which is not a given and is my generous assumption for the purpose of this post, he just doesn't have enough to get himself into any leadership positions. He does not have enough to even get himself a Knesset seat. And even if he puts togeter enough deals with other groups and parties that he finds a way to get himself in, he'll be another small and uninfluential "one issue" party.
As I have said before, I think it is a shame. In my opinion Feiglin will be sorely missed. I liked his approach, I agreed with many of his issues, and I would have liked him to find a way to stay on, perhaps with more realistic goals.
1. I am in favor of such a system. I always have been. Our government clearly needs more stability. The problem is that I don't see how he can possibly form a coalition on this issue when his future coalition partners would basically in effect putting themselves out of business (or at least curbing their own influence a lot).
The only way I can see this actually happening is by forming, after the elections, a national unity government with Labor, and leaving all the other parties out (or at most keeping them as minor partners). This might not portend well for the Haredi parties that are extremely optimistic and hopeful about their being major partners in the next government.
2. At the same time, Feiglin resigned from the Likud. I don't see how his political career can be anything but over at this point, though he may surprise us all. Resigning from the Likud and forming his own party, or joining another party, is against everything he has said over the past 15 years.
If he is now saying that his work of the past 15-20 was entirely wrong, why would anybody (but his most dedicated supporters) follow him in the future - maybe his new approach is just as wrong? he has clearly shown, by his own admission, poor judgement.
And even if he does, and he pulls in a large majority of his supporters, which is not a given and is my generous assumption for the purpose of this post, he just doesn't have enough to get himself into any leadership positions. He does not have enough to even get himself a Knesset seat. And even if he puts togeter enough deals with other groups and parties that he finds a way to get himself in, he'll be another small and uninfluential "one issue" party.
As I have said before, I think it is a shame. In my opinion Feiglin will be sorely missed. I liked his approach, I agreed with many of his issues, and I would have liked him to find a way to stay on, perhaps with more realistic goals.
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Labels:
Likud,
Moshe Feiglin,
Netanyahu
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Why do you think that Feiglin starting a new party would go against what he hes been saying for the past 15 years? For the fast 15 years, he has tried to advance his political agenda in the way he felt was most effective at the time, by attempting a hostile takeover of the Likkud. That having failed, he is trying to advance his political agenda in the way he feels is most effective now. I don't see any inconsistency.
ReplyDeletehe has stated many times that the only way is via the Likud, the ruling party, from within, where am yisrael is. He stated many times that the small parties cannot do this, they are not designed to lead, they worry about one or a few issues, for their own people, but not for the nation.. it goes against everything he said. it is a complete turnaround from the core of his plan.
DeleteFeiglin had a goal and a strategy to reach his goal. His strategy was based on a good assumption that his goals could best be achieved through a main stream party. However, his strategy has been thwarted by a number of variables including a very strategically skilled party leader.
DeleteWith the final nail in the coffin, if he wants to achieve his political goals he needs a new strategy. He could try to build a main stream party from the ground up. Will it work is anybody's guess. I am sure that those more focused on his goals and not his strategy will be willing to at the very least watch and wait to see where he takes his dream.
Yehoshua, why do you perpetuate the lie that Feiglin was attempting a hostile takeover. Is it not legitimate to join a party and attempt change from within? and heaven forbid - want to lead?This is called politics and part of the system.
ReplyDeleteJosh - that is the definition of a hostile takeover. Manhigut Yehudit people were open about it, at least in the early years. they used the term. So what if they were trying for a hostile takeover. nothing wrong with that. too bad they failed.
DeleteI still don't think so. This Manhigut Group came in as Likud Haredim to uphold the party constitution. They were not planning to hijack the party to somewhere else.
DeleteAs far as electoral reform goes: what is missing from the plan is regional representation. The reason that a 'big party' system works in other countries is because the voter doesn't vote only for a party - s/he votes for someone to look after their interests from their locale. In theory, that local representation is the key thing, more than the party. The whole reason Israel has so many small parties, is because people need some way to have their interests considered.
ReplyDeleteIsrael is a small country and pretty much homogeneous too. A pure representative system would have way too much weight on the city people. Germany has a mixed system, we might be able to take some elements from there. On the other hand, the problem with our system is that people keep fiddling with it instead of accepting it. They blame the system instead of the politicians and their egos. And does Netanyahu really expect the Haredim and Arabs to join any group?
DeleteYou are absolutely correct.A few years ago a commission was appointed ny the President to look at this. I summarised the findings here http://jewishworker.blogspot.co.il/2007/01/election-reform-in-israel.html
Delete