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Sep 4, 2022

Will Shas Save Agudat Yisrael?

Shas has made an interesting proposal to Agudat Yisrael. In case Gafni and Degel Hatorah carry through with their threats or warnings to split from Agudat Yisrael and run independently in the upcoming elections, Shas would possibly reserve two slots near the end of the first ten for Hassidic representatives. Agudat Yisrael people, including Meir Porush, have said it is not going to happen - they will not be running with Shas and if Degel insists on splitting and running alone, Agudat Yisrael will also run separately.

This is super interesting, whether it ends up happening or not.

First, UTJ always submits the party list at the very last second. They plan to submit last, just moments before the deadline. For this to work, Shas will need to know in advance what Degel is going to do, and it seems that they will be keeping it close to their chests until the last moment. Personally my guess is that they will run together in the end but Gafni is keeping his poker face really well right now and this could go down to the last moment, and by then it might be too late for Shas to swoop in on their white horse.

Next, this feels a bit patronizing. Shas will save Aguda. aww, shucks, thanks. Gafni already accused Deri of being patronizing, when Deri said he would make sure Degel and Aguda run together. Looks like that is Deri's new style - acting as if he is running the show in the "right bloc" for Netanyahu. it is also somewhat ironic, considering how Shas always claims to be representing people treated as second class to Ashkenazim and here they would come and save the  Ashkenazim. On the other hand, look how far we've come, baby!

Next, the offer itself is interesting. This entire fight between Degel and Aguda started with Degel redefining what their signed agreement is and wanting to re-evaluate the division of seats and power, specifically with the eyes on the 7th seat, as the 8th seems somewhat out of reach, so the 7th is really the balance of power. If Aguda gets slot 1, as per the agreement if defined as written, then Aguda also gets the 7th slot, giving them 4-3 vs Degel. if Degel gets the first slot, Degel gets the 7th slot, leaving Aguda down 4-3. So now instead of coming to an agreement with Degel, theoretically they will split and get two seats instead with Shas. Obviously they would have to run a joint list, otherwise Shas would give two unelected candidates those slots without getting the votes of their supporters in return, which makes no sense. This is an interesting situation.

Next, why is Aguda insistent that they wont run with Shas? Why only with Degel or independent?  What's wrong with running a joint list with Shas? They prefer to risk not crossing the threshold rather than run with Shas? Obviously they might not like the offer of only two seats and lower on the list but they could at least look at this as an opening offer and start negotiations - if they can get a better offer out of Shas, great and if not then no harm no foul - at least they tried.. Saying no automatically does smack of some possible racism (though maybe it is for other reasons, but if so it should be explained) or maybe pride, like we are too proud to take such an offer from Shas.

We'll see how this develops, but this is definitely an interesting development




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