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Nov 3, 2022
full right wing government
A lot of people are worried, and a lot of other people are hoping and suspecting, that Benjamin Netanyahu will turn his back on the right wing and his bloc parties and form a government instead with Yesh Atid and Benny Gantz -a unity government of sorts. President Herzog had said early in the election season he would push for a unity government, and with Netanyahus history of excluding real right wing parties and forming governments with center and even left parties instead, it is not unrealistic to consider that this may happen.
Personally I do not think it will. I would be surprised if it does.
This election season Netanyahu worked with the parties in his bloc very naturally and formed a tight bond between the parties, far more than ever before. Additionally they fought together in the Opposition for the past year and a half and were in the trenches together.
While it is possible that he might do so, I really dont expect him to turn his back on them now and make a government with the other parties that he has been fighting against for the past year and a half (and more if you count the fighting throughout the last few election cycles)
I think we will see a pretty quickly formed right wing government with all his bloc partners. If any of them start to make trouble later with unreasonable demands of legislation or whatnot then Netanyahu might try to replace them with Gantz and/or Lapid, but not now
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In the past, Bibi's strategy for building a stable coalition was to make sure there were enough partners to make sure that no individual faction could veto legislation (outside of what was agreed in the coalition agreements). Ben Gvir is likely to push this Government hard to implement the legislation that he wants. Right now that is the most likely foreseeable conflict within the coalition.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way for Bibi to do this within the Government. The Bibi Bloc partners would not accept an outsider and Bibi has stabbed too many people in the back for any of the opposition parties to want to join.
Unlike when Bibi was in the Opposition, it is likely that the Opposition parties will be willing to cooperate with Likud on legislation that they support. If Bibi is tugged more to the right than he is willing to go, he may rely on the opposition parties for outside support.
Along those lines, I saw a report today that said that Likud is treating RZ & Otzma as separate factions during coalition negotiations. That move means Likud will consider Shas (11 mandates) to be the senior coalition partner.
I read that the factions of RZ are actually splitting as has been the plan all along, though they will work together to join the government together (not one without the other). that doesnt mean anything for the future about staying in the government together.
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