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Oct 23, 2017

PM Netanyahu lowering the threshold

Reportedly, PM Netanyahu is beginning to work on a plan to lower the minimum electoral threshold back to the 2% it used to be. This seems to be some form of gerrymandering as just a couple of years as he led the efforts to raise the minimum threshold to the current 3.25% (which translates to about 4 mandates).

The Likud will definitely pass the minimum threshold, so he isn't doing this for the Likud. The question is what Netanyahu's goal is - one day raising it and another day lowering it.

There are lots of theories out there. Initially it was publicized that the goal is to help ensure Shas pass the minimum threshold in upcoming elections, considering the recent polls that show it at just about that line. Aryeh Deri took umbrage at that saying he does not need the help of the Likud and the changing of the minimum threshold to pass, as they will definitely pass and even grow instead of shrink. He seems insulted when he says that and says they will not support this initiative.

Personally, being a big fan of irony, I would now love it if the idea gets scrapped (which it should anyway) and Shas fails to reach the threshold. I highly doubt that will happen, but it would be wonderful irony if it does.

Other theories floated:
   - this is to help Eli Yishai's Yachad party get in and waste less votes, avoiding what happened in the previous election. Deri might be opposed to it for this reason as well

   - lowering the threshold would likely cause the Arab parties to split up into separate parties as they used  to be and would lessen their political power. Possible, but being that they never join coalitions, they don't really have much power anyway. And there is no guarantee they will split up.

   - saving votes on the right in general. There are a number of right-wing parties that might either split off from other parties or join the electoral fray as new parties, and not passing the minimum threshold could hurt the right wing bloc by wasting hundreds of thousands of votes. The right always refuses to learn its lesson and new right wing parties cause many wasted votes in every election - Netanyahu might be trying to preserve at least some of those votes by helping at least some of those parties succeed.

   - Eli Yishai. I have no idea why Netanyahu would want to help him, considering what that means to Deri who has been so supportive of Netanyahu, but there is a theory that this is to help him get in to the Knesset. Maybe just to avoid wasting his votes, maybe for other reasons. Maybe Netanyahu is planning for a possible indictment of Deri that would force his resignation and hurt Shas - without Deri, bringing in Yachad is less problematic, and there are the polls so this might be a backup plan.

   - Bibi will always do anything possible to hurt Bennet and Habyayit Hayehudi. This might weaken aHabayit Hayehudi by allowing more, smaller, right wing parties in, thus diluting Bennet's electorate and influence.

   - Another possibility is the Ashkenazi Haredi parties might split. It seems unlikely but each of the factions making up UTJ threaten each other every now and then with splitting off. Possibly lowering the bar could help them in the event of such a split.

I don't know what else it might be. Personally, I would prefer the threshold get raised more instead of lowered, but politicians rarely look out for the benefit of the country and are more interested in what benefits themselves.

The bigger question might be if this indicates elections are on the horizon...


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