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Dec 3, 2020

elections - what I don't understand

There are currently two things I don't really understand about the election cycle we are likely entering right now.

1. There is a fight over who caused the elections (if the process doesn't get reversed in the coming days). Gantz obviously brought them about by pushing the vote to dissolve the Knesset, but he did so as a sort of pre-emptive strike because Netanyahu has refused to pass the budget. Blaming Gantz seems to be like blaming Israel for the Six Day War. But the blame does not interest me. I just like the comparison I thought of. They can each blame the other. I don't care. What I don't understand is why Gantz pushed for this now. He could have waited two more weeks and if Netanyahu continued to refuse to pass a budget, it would have happened on its own with no doubt that it is Netanyahu's fault. December 24th, or whatever the specific date is, with no budget would have caused the government to dissolve. Why did Gantz kill the government now rather than just wait a couple more weeks?

2. The polls are coming in fast and furious, and some make absolutely no sense, with the hypotheticals they present as options. But that's ok. I dont follow poll numbers anyway, just trends at most. What I don't understand about the polls though, actually what I dont understand is about the analysis of the polls, is that they are talking about the numbers of the "Right Bloc". Does the "Right Bloc" still exist? Why is Yamina and Bennett still being counted as part of the Right Bloc? Especially with Bennett saying he is going to run against Netanyahu for the premiership this makes no sense. But even without that race between Bibi and Bennett, do they expect Bennett to commit loyalty to a "Right Bloc" after what has happened over the past 9-10 months? Do they have a short memory? Do they not recall any of that? Do they not recall that Bennett has explicitly said numerous times there is no longer a Right Bloc?

If Netanyahu should win, there is surely the possibility of Bennett joining a government led by Bibi, but I don't think it can be a called a right bloc without a commitment of loyalty to the bloc, which Bennett won't be giving.

Thoughts?




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1 comment:

  1. Good questions.

    1. Lapid is the one who pushed the bill to set an election date. The bill is now in committee, controlled now by Blue & White and eventually UTJ before it has any chance of coming to the plenum for a final vote.

    Gantz was forced to make a public decision to support the bill or support to support Bibi. If the sole purpose of the bill was to topple the Government they could have had a vote the immediately toppled the Government and set elections for 3 months later.

    2. I haven't read any coverage of polls, outside of individual parties. My guess is that it is the only way to keep things consistent and in terms people understand.

    ReplyDelete

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