Oct 27, 2024
another storm is coming
Another storm is coming.
That is the message displayed on a large billboard in Palestine Square in Tehran, after Israel's strike on Friday night.
The working theory is that Iran is threatening Israel with another "October 7" style attack.
Let's not forget, the official name of the Oct 7 Hamas operation Was "The Al Aqsa Storm"
First, I dont even know if Iran is capable, at this point, of carrying out any such devastating attack. Hamas has been, and continues to be further, decimated in Gaza by the IDF. Hezbollah in the north is being decimated with almost all its leaders having been taken out pretty quickly and then their replacements also being taken out almost immediately, and then good portions of the weapons stores and tunnels being taken out. Iran's attacks in Israel have been minimally effective. The Houthis are ravaging the shipping lanes int he Red Sea but they arent capable of an October 7 like storm on Israel. The Israel Air Force spent like 3 hours, reportedly, in Iranian airspace unchallenged, and they also had to fly over and through Iraqi airspace to get there. Iran has already shown itself to be a paper tiger, as long as it doesnt go nuclear.
Second, if Israel should decide to attack Iran directly again, I would encourage the planners of such an attack to have our pilots destroy Palestine Square with a couple heavy bombs. Or to avoid civilian casualties, maybe have some troops or agents on the ground do it more covertly.
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1) No, don't attack the square. Hack the billboard and have it display an Israeli flag and play HaTikvah.
ReplyDelete2) This "attack" was overrated. Like the 2 Iranian strikes on Israel, it was coordinated by the US with Iran giving a list of sites it could live with being bombed to the US which was then passed to Israel. Israel then passed on the time of the strike so the Iranians knew to keep their air defenses down. This is a formality to save honour for both sides.
3) Don't be complacent about Iran. If they wanted, they could simply start firing every missile they have at israel without informing the US ahead of time so everyone could get ready to intercept. At the same time the Houthis, who are still pretty intact, could fire everything they have. And note that Hezbollah drones are pretty good at getting through Israeli detection. This isn't over by a long shot.
> 2) This "attack" was overrated. Like the 2 Iranian strikes on Israel, it was coordinated by the US with Iran giving a list of sites it could live with being bombed to the US which was then passed to Israel. Israel then passed on the time of the strike so the Iranians knew to keep their air defenses down. This is a formality to save honour for both sides.
ReplyDeletesource?
For both Iranian attacks, various new agencies eventually broke the story about the US running the whole scheme. I am assuming that happened here, especially given the amount of time it took for Israel to attack and given the leak of the plans a few days earlier.
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