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Nov 25, 2024

ceasefire coming?

The big news right now is that Israel is about to sign a ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah.

Many are commenting in favor of this ceasefire deal and many are commenting in opposition to the ceasefire deal.

I personally do not know how to evaluate it, especially because we have very few of the details, so I am willing to go out on a limb and say that if the government and security forces are ok with it and say it gives us the security we need, I am fine with it. We have decimated Hezbollah, even though they still are a force, to the point that they, and Iran, are begging for this deal.

While personally I think we should keep them connected to Hamas and pressure Iran to have Hamas release the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, I did read in a report somewhere that Netanyahu and the IDF consider it a success that they have been disconnected form Hamas and by signing this deal they are isolating Hamas which will put more pressure on them. I am skeptical, but ok.

I do have a question though about the ceasefire. 

For those opposing a ceasefire demanding total victory, if Hezbollah is agreeing to move away from the border and Israel can keep it safe, as I assume the agreement would include so the northern residents can soon go back home, what do we need to achieve militarily that you would consider total victory? What can or will we achieve with more time for the war that we have not achieved already? At what point would you agree that we will have achieved total victory?

And, if this deal gets signed tomorrow and enough of the government supports it, when Netanyahu says we achieved Total Victory in Lebanon against Hezbollah, will he be lying or will that narrative pass?







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4 comments:

  1. It's quite simple why I oppose a ceasefire: Hezbollah will not honour it.
    What, they'll retreat to the Litani River? So? They don't have 1000's of rockets that can reach across Israel even if fired from there?
    And do you really think they'll do more than a token retreat while leaving hundreds of terrorist in position to continue guerilla attacks against the north?
    And you do realize that the minute Israel signs the agreement, only Israel will be obliged to hold by the terms. Hezbollah will fire 6 rockets at a city in Israel and Israel will be told "Tsk, just 6 rockets. Don't break the ceasefire over that!"
    This is going to be a long war because it has to clean up decades of negligence. Before Israel left Lebanon in 2000 they should have smacked Hezbollah hard. When they went back in 2006 they should've finished the job quickly. they have 24 years of a mess to clean up and that is going to take a long time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What do you recommend Israel does that will be effective?

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    2. so if the ceasefire doesnt happen, at what point will you decide or accept that we have achieved those goals? how will we know when get every last rocket, if that is even possible, and every last Hezbollah fighter?

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    3. When Hezbollah has been reduced in status like Hamas has. Right now Hamas is, as best, a bunch of guerillas hiding out and sneak attacking whenever they can. Hezbollah remains an organized force with a signficant arsenal. The arsenal has to be destroyed and the leaders either killed or forced to flee Lebanon. And if there is a ceasefire, Israel must make it clear the minute a single rocket gets launched, they resume a full assault.

      Delete

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