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Nov 18, 2024
Iran wants out
Hezbollah has been beaten badly by Israel. Between the destruction and the taking out of their leadership, they are somewhat in tatters. A lot of the ceasefire chatter (that I have seen) is coming as requests for a ceasefire from Hezbollah.
Interestingly, it is being reported via the New York Times that Tehran has not gotten involved and told Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire that will push them back past the Litani in accordance with UN Resolution 1701. Iran has told Hezbollah that they will help rebuild and re-arm the terror group and this current war should end now.
I know there is some dispute as to whether Israel should or should not have rights of enforcement and be allowed to make excursions into Lebanon when it feels Hezbollah is violating the agreement in some manner. This is a fact that can be a sticking point for such a deal but I believe at some point Hezbollah will agree tot hat as well - Israel can go in anyway at any time, as it has shown, so this shouldnt be a factor. Lebanon itself has protested this demand saying it harms the independence and sovereignty of Lebanon but we all know that is just a funny joke - Lebanon has no sovereignty - it was taken over by Hezbollah and Syria and Iran with no protest. Now's not the time to cry about sovereignty. Save your country Lebanon and dont let that joke of a complaint get in the way and allow your country to be destroyed even further until you eventually agree.
So I am good with a ceasefire agreement if the military and political leadership are comfortable with the arrangements.
All that being said, as I have said before I do not think Israel should agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon without tying it to Gaza. Hezbollah tied itself to Hamas by attacking continually over the past year+ in solidarity with Hamas saying they wont stop until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Israel should keep to that and keep them tied together. Hezbollah and Iran want a ceasefire means they can't take the destruction any longer. Leverage that. Make Iran tell Hamas to come to the table with reasonable demands and offer the hostages in return for an end to the war and surrender without all the other demands that are unacceptable. Iran wants to climb down off this tree, between the destruction they have absorbed and the fact that Trump is coming into office soon and that will be even more damaging to them, they rightfully want to climb down and back off. Only let them if it includes Hamas and the hostages
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Labels:
cease fire,
Gaza,
Hamas,
hezbollah,
Iran
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Hezbollah is doing fine. Ask all the Israels who go scrambling into shelters on a daily basis because of their rockets. As long as they can fire, they are not defeated.
ReplyDeleteWhen a country enters a war, it needs to have an aim or it will be defeated.
Is Israel's aim really just to push Hezbollah back a few kilometres and then sit and watch as Iran gives it even more powerful weaponry for the next round? If so, Israel is going to lose.
It's like if the Allies had a war goal in 1944 to reach Gemany's pre-war borders and liberate all territory they'd conquered and then stopped and allowed the Nazis to remain in power.
The goal must be the destruction of Hezbollah, period. As in, Hezbollah surrenders, no Arab military forces south of the Litani and the right of Israel to strike at at Hezbollah or Iranian positions they discover.