1. Most Manhigut members don't vote Likud.
2. The main issue is whether the majority of seats go to: Likud, Shas, Mafdal (whatever they're called), Gimmel, and Lieberman, as opposed to Kadimah, Labor, Mereretz and the Arabs. Likud will not form a government even if Feiglin mannages to get them a mandate or two from the right. Thet need to beat the left, not the other right wing parties.
Feiglin known this very well but his dream is that all right wing parties disappear and then all right-wingers unite under him, and if getting one step close to this means a Livni government, so be it.

#1 is a matra very oft repeated, but never backed up. I am sure some don't vote for Likud, but I have never seen a basis for the claim that none do or that most do not.
It is just somethign used to knock Feiglin, but never backed up with any sort of proof.

#2 is also problematic. You can't just group the right-wing parties and the left-wing parties together, and say that whoever has a bigger bloc will form the next government.

If one party gets the most seats, they'll pull parties from the other side into their government in exchange for political goods (i.e. shas- who you've grouped with the right wing parties. That may be true from a defense perspective, but certainly not from a social perspective, something that would cause a lot of friction with Bibi.)

We can't know for sure how most vote. I can only base it on the fact that there are Likud Central Commitee members from the Manhigut camp who don't vote Likud. I know this both from private converstaions with them as well as the fact that there are places in Yesha which have more Likud Central Commitee members than Likud voters. Thirdly the fact that Feiglin's #2 man, left Manigut and the Likud before the 2006 elections in order to take the #4 spot on Marzel's Hazit list shows where at least his loyalties lie.
As there is a secret ballot this cannot be possibly be proven beyond the proof from the Mercaz Halikud vs. Likud voters number.
Anyway if Feiglin gets a realistic spot do you think that his oilam will resist their temptation to vote for Marzel, Wolpe or someone else like that and vote for Likud? I don't know.

I also don't know, but just like I know some do not, I know some do.more or less, I have no idea.but then again - in all the parties, they have always signed up masses of people via "kablanei kolot". is that any better?
if before primaries they are signing up en masse 15,000-20,000 people just so they can place better in the primary, and thse people will not vote for that party i the actual elections, it is the same thing.

so one can say manhigut is doing the same thing as everyone else but on a smaller scale...