With the possibility of new elections looming and the war of words between parties in high gear, here are a few thoughts:

1. If last minute negotiations between Netanyahu and his natural partners don't work out, I see no reason why Netanyahu has not or will not approach Gantz and work quickly out a unity government of at least 70 seats, with other smaller parties possibly joining as well in junior positions with little power.
Nobody will be able to say the people want a right wing government, as he tried. It turns out the parties are their own greatest obstacles. Being that he tried, he should easily take the mandate to try a unity government. Anyways, just like the people spoke with 65 right wing mandates, one can easily say the people spoke with 70 right and left center mandates between Likud and Kachol Lavan.

If it happens, it will be easily justifiable, and the small right wing parties will only have themselves to blame. And I think  it should happen rather than going to new elections. Except for the elections vacation day that we will all miss out on.

2. Gafni and others in UTJ keep saying Lieberman is just doing this to prevent Netanyahu form being Prime Minister. I don't follow his logic, as Lieberman has refused to support any other candidate for Prime Minister. he recommended Netanyahu and has rejected calls to transfer support to anyone else - be it someone from the Likud or from another party. he has repeatedly said Netanyahu is his candidate and the only one.

3. In new elections, Lieberman can totally crash, with people frustrated by his bringing down and preventing a potential right wing government, or he can rake it in big as being the only person to stand up to the demands of the Haredi parties.

4. I don't think the Council of Sages of Agudat Yisrael was bluffing when they approved Netanyahu's compromise last night. I am somewhat impressed Lieberman was able to force their hand like that when they have not agreed to any compromise until now. The thought is that they knew Lieberman would not accept it anyway, as he had said he would not, so they approved it in order to put the ball back in his court. I don't buy that because now that they are on record compromising, that can be used against them in the future. If they only did it as a bluff, that's a bad move. If they did it because they meant it, that is fine.

5. The Likud is preparing a bill to dissolve the Knesset. The way it really works is that if Netanyahu cannot successfully form a government within the allocated time frame, the mandate goes back to the President and he offers it to anyone else he thinks might have a chance of forming a government. The first obvious choice is the leader of the next largest party - in this case Benny Gantz. But he can choose anybody - in this case, perhaps Gideon Saar or someone else form the Likud if he thinks of someone who might have a reasonable chance of success at forming a government. However, if the bill to dissolve the Knesset passes, that forces new elections and does not give anyone else the opportunity to try to form a government.

 I don't know when the last time, if ever, it happened that the nation went to elections, a government could not be formed, and the nation wet back to elections again immediately.

Regardless, I wonder about new MKs who achieved reserved spots in the Likud. Many of the reserved spots are only for first-time Members of Knesset. Meaning, there is, for example, a spot reserved for a woman. A woman who held that spot in the last Knesset, cannot run for that spot again but has to run on her own merits and achieve an unreserved spot, while that reserved spot will be given to a new female MK. So, I wonder if some of the MKs who got in on reserved slots will now lose their seats because they likely won't qualify on their own merits (as they are not yet household names and do not have broad support at this point) but also cannot qualify for the reserved spots they recently won. I do not know if there is a clause in the Likud rule book that deals with this and allows them to retain their reserved slot even though technically they served in the Knesset already, albeit only briefly.

6. what happens with Eli Yishai now - will the same previous agreements apply again? will he support UTJ? Will they decide he didnt add much and drop him like a hot potato? Will Netanyahu offer him anything?

7. No political party really wants to go to new elections (except Opposition parties). They might think they know what will happen and how they'll come out of it, but nobody really knows. Lieberman can totally crash and disappear or he can rake it in big for his strong stance. Netanyahu might wipe out another party or two and take all their votes, or he can find himself losing votes by frustrated voters who see him as part of the problem. UTJ and Shas can each, separately or together, lose a couple of seats - there might be a limit to how much, and how often, you can rile up your voter base with emergency calls of threats to the home and also draw in support from others. Zehut can pass if they can take some of Netanyahu's frustrated supporters. Habayit Hayehudi might grow as well, or they might lose voters to Likud, Zehut or Lieberman as their voters see them as being the lapdogs of the Haredi parties at this point and not standing on their own. Kachol Lavan might break up. Hayemin Hechadash says they'll run again if new elections happen - while it is difficult to see them getting in, who knows which party they'll hurt the most.



Briefly, anything can happen and the parties will spend every moment of the next couple of days until the deadline to avoid elections.