Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Jul 30, 2026
my election ani maamin
I have said this many times, and I will say it again.... I don't believe much in election polls. I think the questions are tailored to get certain answers. i think the respondents frequently lie. I think questions are not clear or broad or accurate enough to present the voter with all the relevant options. I think new parties joining the system throw everything off. I think polls before campaigns even start are even more worthless.. etc.
That being said, there are some trends one can see that give indications one way or the other, along with behaviors and patterns of candidates and parties that give indications beyonfd what the polls might show.
That being said, I have complete faith, ani maamin, in the ability of the current parties that make up the Opposition today to mess up and lose what should be an easy electoral victory. As dysfunctional and as bad as the government was this term, the Opposition was even more dysfunctional and useless. I don't dare predict who will win and who will lose, and definitely not so early in the season with so much campaigning and changes ahead of us, but I would not be surprised to see the Opposition totally mess up their campaigns.
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Jul 19, 2026
New Haredi faction for elections
There is a Haredi election campaign running that looks like it could make things interesting.
We have seen in some previous elections attempts by new political formations in the Haredi community. A new party will form and run in the elections and the traditional Haredi parties will push hard against them leading to combinations of social threats against the people behind the new party along with pressure to drop out so as to not waste votes and to not take away votes from the traditional parties. In the past, with just a small number of semi-recent exception, the new parties do not even make it to the finish line and drop out well before the elections. TOV and DERECH were the exceptions that I can think of offhand and they continued to run all the way to the end (and even won some mandates) in municipal elections but not in national elections, and there was a Hared women's party that ran to the end of but ended up very weak after a tough campaign against them and beyond their actual existence did not really accomplish anything significant with their run achieving a very small pool of votes.
There has been talk in recent monthsof several new Haredi parties being formed. I saw one that would compete directly with Shas being formed by a Rav Abergil. I am aware of another that seemed to me to be a yeshivish anglo (or maybe part anglo) party, though I havent heard anything about them recently. I am hearing of another party being formed by groups like Rav Betzalel Cohen and others he is working with. We'll see what comes of all these and if they can withstand the pressure that will surely be levied on them. These are the traditional formations of parties and what normally happens to them as the elections approach.
There is a new campaign out there right now an dit is different than the traditional.
Instead of forming a new party and trying to garner support and withstand the pressures that are certainly coming, Motti Leitner, a municipal politician from Bet Shemesh (from the DERECH parrty) is now running a 2 million shekel campaign for the upcoming elections. He formed a faction, called "HaTzibbur Hacharedi" - the Haredi Public, and instead of campaigning for this as a party looking for support, he is campaigning right now to push the traditional Haredi parties to take him in as a representative of his facton. According to the current campaign, UTJ and Shas are both made up of various factions, and Hatzibbus Hacharedi would simply be another faction in the umbrella and would be given a specific slot on whichever list accepts him to represent his faction. His campaign is not seeming to target UTJ or Shas specifically but I think naturally it would be more in line with UTJ, though practically I think Shas might have a higher chance of adopting him (not that they will but that the chances are higher in my opinion).
Leitner's campaign is pointing out that yeshiva bochurim have become targets, the honor of Torah has been trampled, families are being crushed under financial burdens. These are traditional Haredi issues and technically exactly what the traditional Haredi parties supposedly deal with... so why is this new faction necessary? They say new blood needs to be infused into the traditional parties, more representation of the younger generation.
source: i24 News
Interestingly, DERECH, the party Leitner heads in Bet Shemesh, did not run a municipal campaign on traditional Haredi issues but seemed to represent the community called the "modern Haredim" which are young couples ansd families many of whom work and are not learning in yeshivas and have concerns other than things like the traditional concern of Haredi draft and money for yeshivas and the like, so I find it interesting that they are moving away from that and trying to bring the traditional campaigns to the younger crowd they claim to represent. I look forward to seeing how this develops..
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Jul 13, 2026
Primary Season is open!
I just got my first "direct" communication from a Likud candidate for Knesset, he is also a current MK, asking for my support in the upcoming primaries. He also offered me the option to volunteer for his campaign to help him succeed.
I responded asking about the possibility of the primaries being canceled entirely. While I still dont think that is going to happen and is only being used to pressure Likud leadership to give Netanyahu the maximum number of "shiryunim" as possible, it is still on the table.
We'll see what he responds, if anything.
The obne thing that does come of this is that it indicates election season is finally officially here and open!
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Nov 3, 2025
Halacha Headlines: 11/1/25 – Shiur 533 – NYC EXCLUSIVES: THE ERUV CONTROVERSY | NY ELECTIONS (audio)
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Oct 20, 2025
gerrymandering the threshold
Coalition members are worried by polls that show in the upcoming elections, whenever they will be held, would likely see some parties not crossing the minimum threshold. Specifically the coalition is worried about Betzalel Smotritch's party and care less about other parties in a similar situation. To avoid those votes being wasted should Hatzionut Hadatit not cross the threshold, they are considering lowering the threshold to ensure this won't be a problem.
If they do this a couple parties on the Left will owe them a debt of gratitude as well.
In essence this is the Israeli form of gerrymandering. they dont care what is or isnt good for the country (and I am not saying it is bad, but they arent doing it because of idealistic reasons based on research and thought of what an ethical electoral system looks like but because he doesnt want to lose numbers of votes).
Anyway, in my opinion, Smotritch doesnt need to be saved as he will run as a bloc, presumably with Ben Gvir like last time. After elections they can split off to function and operate separately, as they did last time. On the left the parties at risk will be too haughty and stupid to make such arrangements, but if there is any real risk to Smotritch they will make deals to make sure he and his get in. The coalition would actually likely be better off not lowering the threshold as Netanyahu will push them to run together even if they dont want to, ensuring those votes are not wasted, while on the Left it is highly likely such parties will not make similar deals and votes will be wasted...
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Sep 21, 2025
Tweet of the Day
הודעה מיוחדת לבעלי תפקידים בשירות הציבורי ולגורמי אכיפת החוק:
— Naftali Bennett נפתלי בנט (@naftalibennett) September 21, 2025
אינספור אנשים שאלו אותי האם בכלל יתקיימו הבחירות.
אהיה ברור:
לא נאפשר לאף אחד לדחות או לשבש את הבחירות. אנחנו על זה.
דחיית בחירות יכולה להתרחש רק ברוב של 80 חברי כנסת, ואין כאלה.
**
בהזדמנות זאת, אני פונה לכל…
Translation (courtesy of X Translation services):
Special message to public service officials and law enforcement authorities: Countless people have asked me whether the elections will take place at all. I will be clear: We will not allow anyone to postpone or disrupt the elections. We are on it. Postponing elections can only happen with a majority of 80 Knesset members, and there are no such. ** On this occasion, I appeal to all heads of security systems, police officers, public employees, judges, and members of the Election Committee: Continue to uphold the law and the state. I am aware of the immense system of pressures being applied to you. It is not easy, but do not agree to break the law or bend the rules due to political pressure. You will not forgive yourselves for deviating from the law; you bear responsibility for your actions. There is a tomorrow. Do not be afraid. Soon the current government will be replaced. The bad norms that have infiltrated the public systems, such as allowing agents of an enemy state to operate from the Prime Minister's office, government ministers who receive bribes, or the intervention of political and criminal operatives in promoting military and police officers, will be uprooted from the root. Soon the state will return to a healthy track of professional management, renewal, and growth.
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Jan 16, 2025
faith in the government
PM Netanyahu is in a tough situation. He is caught between a rock and a hard place. Damned if you do, damned if you dont.
Elections might or might not solve anything moving forward, but they are necessary. too many people lost complete faith in the government because of October 7, and now many have because of this deal. They need to go back to the people. Netanyahu can run on his war accomplishments, on bringing the hostages home or on whatever platform he prefers, and Smotritch can run on standing strong against Bibi and his insistence on not ending the war, or whatever else he thinks will get him support. Let the people have their say. Give the people the chance and opportunity to choose and have a government they can have faith in again.
On the one hand this is a deal that by now he cannot back out of. This would be bad for him in his relations with Trump and it would create immense pressure from the people after raising hopes. On the other hand, he is worried about losing his government if he goes ahead with it, as he has so far failed to convince Ministers Smotritch and Ben Gvir to support the deal or at least stay in the government.
Netanyahu should be proactive, take the initiative and call for new elections on his terms, not Ben Gvirs or Smotritch's terms.
Elections might or might not solve anything moving forward, but they are necessary. too many people lost complete faith in the government because of October 7, and now many have because of this deal. They need to go back to the people. Netanyahu can run on his war accomplishments, on bringing the hostages home or on whatever platform he prefers, and Smotritch can run on standing strong against Bibi and his insistence on not ending the war, or whatever else he thinks will get him support. Let the people have their say. Give the people the chance and opportunity to choose and have a government they can have faith in again.
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Sep 30, 2024
small elections, small minds
the election of the Chief Rabbis yesterday turned into an even bigger embarrassment and disaster than was expected, and far greater than it already was.
As if important rabbis breaking deals and commitments while playing politics for a job isnt bad enough.
Yesterday, as the counting of the ballots concluded, a tie was officially declared between the candidates Rav Kalman Ber and Rav Micha Halevi, each with 40 votes tallied. Due to the tie, it was officially announced that the vote would go to a second round of voting.
Shortly after the official declaration, an additional vote was discovered in the wrong ballot box - a vote for open of the ashkenazi rabbi candidates was found in the Sefardi rabbi ballot box (it had not been noticed there during the counting of the votes for the Sefardic Chief Rabbi). The candidate whose name is on that ballot declared victory saying it should be counted as that is the will of the voter even if a mistake was made, while the other candidate claimed the vote is invalid and cannot be counted.
They will decide whatever they decide as each side in the matter will make his case, and it will probably end up in the Supreme Court. Rabbis vying for the position of Chief Rabbi should really be above such suspicions and shenanigans. the only way to fix this and retain any level of respect for the office that might still be left would probably be to void the entire election and have a do-over. It might even make sense to invalidate the current candidates who for now have left a bad stain on an office that is meant to be one of morality and faith and not one of politics and underhandedness. This wont happen though so somehow a decision will be made, likely by the Supreme Court, and someone will be declared Chief Rabbi, and the people will continue to have less and less respect for the Chief Rabbinate than what they already had based on the embarrassments of previous years.
It is amazing how the Ministry of Religious Affairs and the connected politicians with all their "rosh katans" could do such a poor job running such a small election (just 140 votes maximum, of which 138 votes were submitted) and bring such shame to the office. It is almost as of they are trying to destroy the reputation of the Chief Rabbinate and get the last few people who still respect the office and listen to its decision to abandon it like everyone else.
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Mar 10, 2024
mayoral runoff
The mayoral runoff election in several cities around Israel is well underway. Best of luck to all the candidates.
Whoever wins - just remember you are being elected to serve the people. Work your hardest to do good for the people living under your leadership and authority.
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Mar 6, 2024
There is a Milchemet Mitzva going on, but not the one you are thinking of
In Sunday's mayoral runoff election in Bet Shemesh, it seems Shmuel Greenberg, the candidate from Degel Hatorah, has the best odds of winning. The campaign is in high gear as he tries to persuade other political parties and rabbonim to throw their support to him so that most of their followers and adherents will vote Greenberg.
This set of posters in particular is highly offensive and has made it to the national news. Unless Shas throws their support to Aliza Bloch, the numbers arent even close and I am not sure why they are going to such an offensive campaign in its final days...
The posters say - " In a Milchemet mitzva, a mandatory war, everyone has to go out, even a groom from his room and the bride from her chuppa - on Sunday everyone must go out to vote!" etc etc
There is a war going on. A real war. A real milchemet mitzva. The real war is happening down south, and somewhat up north. Thousands of soldiers, and previously hundreds of thousands of soldiers, are serving and have gone to battle. The Haredi community has for the most part not taken part in that milchemet mitzva, finding every excuse why they are to be excused from it. Yes, they did volunteer and donate equipment and make barbecues for soldiers, but that is far from the same thing as going to battle. But for the war in Bet Shemesh to become mayor that is the milchemet mitzva they must all go out for!!??
Not only did the Haredi parties, all around the country, benefit from general low voter turnout because of the war (less interest in municipal elections during a war) while Haredi turnout remained high as it normally is, thus winning higher percentages of seats in city councils.. Not only did they run aggressive campaigns and fought with other Haredi sectors over power and control, while the country is at war. Not only all that but now they are using terminology from war to fight the battle of elections?
These signs are in poor taste. Very poor taste.
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Feb 27, 2024
Good Luck
Today was municipal elections. The voting stations just closed a few minutes ago and I do not yet know who they are saying seems to be the winner. There is a long night ahead of counting votes.
For Bet Shemesh and for cities across Israel, I wish much luck and success to the candidates who will have won spots as mayor or on the city council and their efforts should bear fruit to the benefit of the residents they serve.
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Feb 25, 2024
Quote of the Day
Something happened, and I am not sure any deal was actually changed, but something happened in Elad! That has no connection to Rechasim! That has no connection to running this city. And then comes along someone, not one of the gedolei hatorah, and sets the entire country up in flames, lighting aflame Rechasim - there was no need for elections here. We could have had an agreement, an agreement among the parties, among the rabbonim... Why do we need to come here and campaign and do all this work, because someone decided to take revenge against the gedolei hador?? Why are we going to battle in Bet Shemesh? We are going to battle in many cities and places that have no connection to this issue!
-- MK Moshe Gafni (UTJ) at an election rally in Rechasim
1. they prefer no elections at all, in Gafni's own words. Don't even give the residents a choice as to who should administer their cities. Just make a deal among the politicians and the residents need not be involved at all.
2. Let's not forget it was Degel who broke a municipal agreement and then said agreements do not need to be kept. Now they are upset that Shas no longer trusts them and decided to run their own candidates?
3. Just like Gafni has the gedolim he listens to, Deri has the gedolim he listens to. No need to say someone who isnt among the gedolim is taking revenge against the gedolim. Deri isnt among the gedolim, but he has his own gedolim in the Shas Moetzes just like Gafni has his in the Degel Moetzes.
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Feb 1, 2024
Moshe Abutbol for Mayor campaign is underway
The Moshe Abutbol for Mayor campaign is underway, plastering signs around the neighborhood.
One sign I saw looks fine, mentioning Achdut in Bet Shemesh under Abutbol (because he signed support with Agudat Israel and expects to sign with other parties, so he is calling that Achdut). The other sign being plastered around is less understandable, at least to me.
The slogan on these signs say "Aryeh needs a strong Moshe, Moshe Abutbol for Mayor of Bet Shemesh".
Why? Why does Aryeh need a strong Moshe? How does a strong Moshe as Mayor of Bet Shemesh help Aryeh Deri doing anything specific in the government? Feel free to enlighten me.
I do get that it is a play on words using a similar campaign theme to the last Shas campaign in the national elections, saying Bibi Needs a strong Aryeh", but at least that made sense - Bibi needed a strong turnout of support for Shas to form a stable coalition. That makes sense. I guess they are banking on that theme in people's minds, but I dont get a strong Moshe helps Deri or how a weak Moshe hurts Deri. Of course Deri wants him to win, but how does this hurt or help Deri?
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Quote of the Day
I am the Chairman of UTJ and the Chairman of Agudat Israel, there was no signed agreement regarding Bet Shemesh. It never happened. There was never an arrangement, not even a handshake deal. To resolve the fighting over municipal elections, I am prepared to agree to a three-way rotation between Shas, Degel Hatorah and Agudat Israel, each one getting one term in turn. We will divide up the land and have the elections set for the next 15 years.
-- Minister Yitzchak Goldknopf
1. maybe the agreement was from previous years, when Litzman headed Agudat Israel, or when Gafni was chairman of UTJ...
2. Agudat Israel breaking the agreement with Degel, if there was an agreement, is actually funny and ironic. When Degel broke their agreement with Shas (in Elad) and supported Porush for re-election, their gadol Rav Landau justified it saying agreements do not need to be kept. Now Degel is upset that Aguda isnt keeping an agreement (if there was one) by supporting Abutbol for mayor instead of Degel's candidate Greenberg.
3. Notice that they dont care about what anyone feels is good for Bet Shemesh or any other city, what policies might be relevant, or who an appropriate candidate might be. They just want an equal share of power, divide up the land, each one getting a turn to put their people in place. This is why many dont like these deals.
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Jan 30, 2024
Bet Shemesh municipal elections update
Interesting developments in Bet Shemesh municipal elections.
With less than a month to go until election day we are seeing some activity in the ranks of the candidates.
Today had Gur signing a deal of support for Moshe Abutbol as mayor of Bet Shemesh. While we don't know what they get in return, Minister Yitzchak Goldknopf and his team signed with Abutbol and will campaign on his behalf.
That means Agudat Israel is split, with Gur and Vizhnitz supporting Abutbol, and Shlomei Emunim and Belz (and some small groups) supporting Degel Hatorah's candidate Shmuel Greenberg for mayor.
I dont think any parties [yet] have signed support for Aliza Bloch, the current mayor up for re-election.
Several other parties have still not [yet] announced which candidate they support for mayor.
Besides for getting support from at least some of the remaining parties, Bloch's best hope seems to be to benefit from a Haredi split - which has now actually happened.
With elections scheduled for the end of February, there is still plenty of time for a lot to happen.
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Dec 27, 2023
kicking the can down the road
After much back and forth with different parties weighing in on whether or not the municipal elections, scheduled for the end of January, should be postponed again due to the war, looks like it is coming towards a final decision.
The news is reporting now that Minister of Interior Moshe Arbel is changing his position on the matter and is supporting postponing the elections to the end of February. His change of heart is tagged to the opinion submitted by the IDF stating that fair elections cannot be held at this time with nearly 3000 candidates serving in reserve duty.
Postponing to February is smart. It requires no change of law as the original postponement from October to January also left open the option for another postponement to February. If it needs to be postponed again because of the situation with the war, that will require further legislation, but postponing to February does not as it was already taken into account and included in the last law passed.
It is the easy way out of this conflict and mess in the government. Unless the war is over by the end of January, the fighting over the election date will happen again, but for now it is easy to kick the can down the road and calm everyone's frayed nerves.
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Dec 20, 2023
Troll of the Day
I promise you I have served more days of miluim, reserve duty in the army, than the head of your party [Betzalel Smotritch]. I do not accept this preaching..
-- Minister of Interior Moshe Arbel responding to the attack on Arbel by MK Michal Waldiger for insisting on holding the municipal elections at the end of January during a war and not agreeing to postpone it. Smotritch served an abbreviated army service at age 28.
Arbel is cute and that's a wicked troll but the story isnt Smotritch. Smotritch has a valid complaint that many of the candidates in the upcoming municipal elections, along with staff and campaigners and whatnot, are serving in miluim now and unable to campaign for the elections.
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Dec 18, 2023
UTJ clarifications
UTJ issued two clarifications a short while ago:
1. regarding municipal elections, they are in favor of postponing the elections until the end of February because of the war
2. Regarding the issue of taxing the sugary drinks - they are in favor of an educational campaign to teach people about the dangers of consuming too much sugar, but they are against doing it via a tax which is only damaging (ie costs people money)
Thoughts:
Thoughts:
Regarding #1 - interesting. I wonder why. At most they should not care or take a position, and at least they should be in favor of keeping it as scheduled by law as it seemingly helps them. I wonder why they are in favor of postponing.
Regarding #2 - this morning it was reported that the Aguda faction of UTJ led by Minister Goldknopf is against the tax. Yesterday it was reported that Gafni was ok with it. Now UTJ is saying no tax. I wonder if Gafni wasnt really in favor and the report yesterday was premature or if Goldknopf's veto is simply overriding. Additionally, it will be interesting to see what happens next - my assumption is that if UTJ doesnt get on board this idea will be dropped as per coalition agreements rather than making a coalition crisis. It was be especially interesting if Smotritch tries to keep it alive for a while, strengthening my initial thought I mentioned yesterday that this might be revenge for Arbel's insistence on keeping the election date for the end of January
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Dec 17, 2023
Quote of the Day
Candidates who desecrate the holiness if the IDF uniform and deal in politics while wearing the uniform are breaking the law, damaging the national resilience, and strengthening the need to not postpone the elections. I call on all candidates to preserve the honor of the IDF as an apolitical and stately body
-- Minister of Interior Moshe Arbel, commenting on a candidate for municipal elections in Herzliya (Yariv Fisher of Yesh Atid) campaigning while in uniform and discussing politics and also posting his campaign topics with a picture of himself from the battlefield
yes, it is against the law and candidates need to be careful about not campaigning in uniform and not using the IDF as part of their campaigns. but. But we are in the middle of a war and many of the candidates are involved in one way or another, and it is difficult to expect them to run from the battlefield to the campaign trail and to be able to leave that behind.
I am also not sure how this "strengthens the need to not postpone elections" - if anything it seems to strengthen the need to postpone elections because right now everything is mixed up and focused on the war in Gaza and it is difficult to separate that from active politics.
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Dec 6, 2023
municipal elections back on the schedule
Minister of Interior Moshe Arbel has decided there will be no more delays in municipal elections. The elections will be held January 30, 2024. Towns that have been evacuated (north or south) will hold elections 5 months after they go back to their towns.
I dont see how this can happen in a way that will ensure fair elections in which everybody has the right to vote and representatives running for office will have the ability to compete fairly.
The country is at war. This isnt just a situation of soldiers voting the normal way, on base, in their downtime. The country is at war. Thousands and thousands of soldiers are in Gaza, and seemingly will continue to be for a while. Will the country truck in ballots to Gaza for the soldiers and set them up to take a break from fighting and vote? If not then they are not being given their right to vote. And, that gives others an unfair advantage in the elections. But let's say they can make it happen, everyone will get their chance to vote.
There are still a lot of candidates themselves, or people who work for candidates, serving in miluim, either on a base somewhere, performing guard duty, in Gaza, in training, whatever it may be - how are they supposed to campaign for whatever offices they are running for when they are serving in miluim, fighting in Gaza, serving the country?
I dont see how it is reasonable to hold elections at the end of January, unless Arbel thinks the war will be over by then.
Additionally, the politics talk has been on a low flame since the war started. Start elections now, bring back campaigns, and surely the fighting will begin to increase again. As the war drags on it is already starting to happen anyway, throw political campaigns into it and it is a recipe for disaster on the home front during a war.
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