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  -- MK Dan ilouz (Likud)

not sure how he expects the Likud to be able to form a coalition if he thinks the Likud should work against some of its national partners. Whatever you might think about those partners, the Likud needs them at this point... Netanyahu created this fiction of blocs back when we were in a series of re-elections and it has worked well for him, and he should be the one to dismantle it rather than be dragged around by others, but right now he cannot as he has no other options... maybe that is something he should deal with, but util he does, his bloc is his only option...

The issue has been ongoing for a little while, with Netanyahu both demanding a large number of designated slots into which he can personally choose someone for that slot, and also Netanyahu seemingly thinking that certain MKs who would benefit from the primaries and get into realistic slots might harm the Likud list in the upcoming national elections and cost the Likud some seats. That concern is based on advanced polling Netanyahu relies on.

In the end I think this is just posturing and Netanyahu won't go ahead with this. He will use this for some sort of compromise, perhaps to get more "shiryunim", reserved slots, than what others are willing to give but fewer than what he is demanding, or maybe something else. I just cannot see him canceling the primaries.

The Likud, and Netanyahu, has always been very proud of the primaries and uses them to attack many of the other parties. the Likud is one of just a few parties that hold real primaries to choose its candidates, and they regularly claim they are the only democratic party that holds primaruies while other parties have their candidates selected by the chairman or a committee. I have a hard time believing they are really going to give that up and make the Likud just like most of the other parties in that regard. I can see the attacks on the Likud for this if it happens, King Bibi canceling primaries and selecting the candidates that work for him. I don't think he will give anyone that opportunity.

And perhaps a bigger reason is that if there are no primaries, why should anyone be a member of the Likud? If they were to cancel the primaries I would assume there would be mass cancelations of membership, which would be a big financial hit to the Likud.

The Haredi parties, especially Degel Hatorah, were pushing for the law to be brought to vote, though they never said they got the go ahead from Rav Landau and Rav Hirsch to actually support it. When they sqaw it was not coming and PM Netanyahu was not doing anything about it, ot the point that Netanyahu told them it will have to wait for the next government, they decided to bring down the government over it. Even though they themselves never said they would support it.

So they decde they can't trust Netanyahu any longer and he is just playing with them, constantly making excuses to buy time and kick the can down the road, so they support going to early election (not a big deal, it is a different of 4-6 weeks, not any significant change). The initial vote passes. PM Netanyahu seems to go into panic mode and despite the process of voting the government out having started, he tries to push the bill through, has the committee put on the afterburner and plan to bring it to vote almost immediately, whether he has the votes or not - even if it does not pass he can say I brought it to vote and tried, don't blame me.

Tonight Degel announced they will not play along. We are not interested in Netanyahu just bringing it to a vote. They are also saying it is a bad proposal - though they still have not said if they would or would not support it should it actually come to a vote. They said Netanyahu can't just bring a law, he has to bring a law with a majority vote.

So Netanyahu first said wait until after the elections, Degel said no. Now Netanyahu is pushing for a quick vote on a law and Degel is saying, no, wait until after the elections. 

The news is reporting, anonymously of course, that the people around Netanyahu are angry at Degel Hatorah saying Degel played with them. Degel, they are saying, never planned to support the bill, they now just want to blame its failure on Netanyahu. Netanyahu's biggest concern, which is what's pushing him to push the law forward now, is that Degel might not support him for Prime Minister after the next election - he already lost Agudat Israel. And if Degel doesn't, it will be messy for Shas as well.

So they are each blaming the other for the failure of a bill that neither side, seemingly, wanted. Degel spent four years ignoring the fact that Netanyahu was trying to not bring the bill forward and only make it look like he was taking it seriously to keep them happy. Netanyahu spent four years saying this bill (that he clearly never actually intended to bring to vote) would bring 23000 haredim to the army within 3 years while ignoring the fact that the Haredi leadership repeatedly said, despite pushing for a bill, that despite any passed law not a single Haredi would conscript because of it.

Will Netanyahu successfully push a law through with a majority vote this week and save himself? We'll see what happens.

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Netanyahu in an interview with the New York Times said he would ignore incoming Mayor of NY Mamdani's statement that if Netanyahu comes to NY he will arrest as per the international warrant. When asked if he will actaully test it, he said, wait and see, and reaffirmed that he plans to go to NY after Mamdani takes office.

Good for him.

I am not even sure the ICC ruling applies to the USA as the USA is not a signatory of the ICC. So I am not sure Netanyahu could be arrested there even if someone actually wanted to arrest him. Additionally, Mamdani is a mayor of a city - does that give him authority to make arrests?

Anyways, PM Netanyahu is talking big about going to NY. I assume it is because in the USA he feels he can rely on President Trump to intervene if Mamdani actually tries to do anything about that. He did not talk so big when he had the pilot change the route on his USA trip a little while back to avoid flying over European countries that said they would arrest him. He also did not talk so big when he canceled trips to European countries after they said they would adhere to the ICC ruling and arrest him...

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When negotiating a deal, both sides have to be incentivized to agree to it - each side has to feel like it is gaining something, getting what it needs, to be able to agree.

President Trump announced a deal on the way and Israel went and negotiated with Trump to make sure certain clauses and terms would be included so Israel could live with it. PM Netanyahu has said he accepts it because Israel's concerns are taken care of in this arrangement and can live with Hamas being exiled or whatever specifics arent exactly what Israel wanted. Fair enough.

And now we wait for Hamas to "study the proposal" and return with a response.

What in this deal, or in any deal, is included that would make Hamas agree to it and feel they got something they want and need? 

From a negotiations perspective why should or would Hamas accept this deal, or any deal Israel agrees to? Any deal Israel agrees to basically does away with Hamas. Why would they ever agree to that? What has any of these deals offered Hamas as incentive to agree? All these deals have been win-lose from Hamas perspective. Technically it is a good deal (maybe) for the people of Gaza but Hamas doesn't care about that - what is there that would encourage Hamas to agree to this and that they can see as being beneficial to them?

Offering a deal that has no chance of being accepted by the other side because it offers them nothing beneficial is not really a solution. Maybe just saying we won't kill them all but will let them leave is enough for them, though we know that so far that has not been enough.

Please explain. I get why this is a good deal from our side, but why do we think would Hamas ever agree to that? Maybe it is enough that Qatar might pressure them to. Maybe not

Meaning, an Israeli I want us to win and not Hamas and come out of this on top. But if we are offering them a deal, what's the point if we are not offering them something they can point to as a win for them? They simply wont accept it.

I dont know about all that. The apology definitely does not bother me. That is diplomacy. Netanyahu is beholden to President Trump, Israel's last supporter, he has to do what Trump wants, and that is what Trump needs to have any chance of getting this deal underway. The apology does not bother me. This is a small price to pay to have any chance at all to get the deal underway.

Netanyahu tried to convince the Israeli people the operation in Qatar was not a failure saying Hamas now knows they can't hide and are not safe anywhere. And he said explicitly that he would strike again if and when the opportunity presents itself. I think today's apology and commitment to not attack again contravenes that.

I am good with Netanyahu making this deal. Israel is strong and can handle and deal with any and all of the points that will be finalized and agreed upon. I have thought this all along with other deals on the table at other times and think it now. Those attacking it from the Left are somewhat hypocritical, those attacking it from the Right are not hypocritical but those on the Right making and supporting the deal that is similar in many aspects to the deals they refused to consider all along for ending the war are hypocritical too. For many on the Left, whatever Bibi says is bad even if they supported it all along and it matches their own agenda. For many on the Right whatever Bibi says is great even if just yesterday they criticized the very thought of it and it was supposedly the polar opposite of their agenda. 

For those saying it will allow Hamas to perpetrate another October 7, that means they are planning to abandon Israel's borders again and leave them defenseless. Israel is strong enough to protect its borders if it wants to (of course with God's help). We are only at risk of another October 7 if we go back to the old policies of letting Hamas do whatever it wants in exchange for some sense of quiet. Make the deal that is reasonable, end this too-long-war and get back the remaining hostages,, and rehab the country.

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in case you have not yet seen PM Netanyahu's United Nations speech from Friday...

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-- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

wow

first, I admit I had to look up the word autarkic.

Is such a thing possible in today's world? PM Netanyahu is supposedly the financial world so let's hope he has a way this can be done. Manufacturing arms in Israel never seemed like a bad idea but going to full isolation in a global economy does not sound as much of a good idea. Is it the realistic situation and not just a direction he is taking us? Seemingly but it is also happening and being foisted on us due to the never-ending war he is leading with no diplomacy out there trying to mitigate the damage of such a long war, of attacks on civilians, churches and aid workers, let alone civilians, and all the other criticisms we have failed to deal with, focusing only on getting along with President Trump and letting the rest of the world (including much of the USA) fall by the wayside.

Good luck to us all

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