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Feb 11, 2009

And the winner is...

Tzippi Livni, for now.

It is time to send Bibi Netanyahu packing. Back to the political pasture. This was an election Bibi could not lose, and he lost.

Yes, he did tremendous, bringing the Likud back from 12 mandates to a respectable 27. But he was in an unstoppable position - a failed government, a corrupt government, a government weak on security, a bad economy - everything in fields which supposedly he is king. And he still lost. Tzippi Livni had a chance to form a government with no elections, and when she could not, this should have been in his pocket. Yet he still came out behind Livni.

True, the numbers are still not final, and anything can happen. As well, the bloc of the Right is greater, so he still might get the chance to form the government. But it should not have been this close.

I am also disappointed in Moshe Feiglin. If he really believes in his way and considers himself a realistic future leader for the Likud and sees the Likud as his home, then he should have worked harder for the Likud. He is the head of a large camp within the Likud, and had he publicly worked for the Likuds success, perhaps they would have gotten a few more seats. I understand maybe he was upset about what happened with him being moved back to 36. I thought that was wrong of Bibi (one of his obvious mistakes), but at the end of the day, how can Feiglin expect to lead the Likud if he could not get past that to help bring the Likud to success? We hardly heard his voice the past month. I also know that he told people, for internal Likud political purposes, that in the major cities it was unimportant to vote Likud, and they could vote for other parties if they wanted to - in certain areas it was more important and there he encouraged people to vote Likud. He should have been working for everyone to vote Likud wherever they are.

So what will be? I don't know. The coming days and weeks will tell us.. Numbers might change, but even if not, I see no reason Livni should not be given the first chance to form a government. It is not out of her reach. She could offer Bibi an attractive offer for unity, Lieberman a nice position, Shas some money (they went down a bit so their price tag should also go down), and other parties even less. I see no reason the parties on the right should automatically reject her offers. Bibi spent the last 3 months saying he would not form a government with the right wing parties, but would go to Kadima for a unity government - so I see no reason they should be more loyal to him than he was to them.

But Bibi should be sent home. The Likud needs to find a new leader.

12 comments:

  1. I'm also disappointed. I can't believe he bungled this and I can't believe she might actually be a PM. :(

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  2. I can't believe who in their right minds would have voted for "more of the same" - mind boggling. Is it any wonder Israel's in the mess it is, when we have such morons walking around?

    The main problem as I see it is the sheer number of choices the voter has - abnormal! So many wasted votes; such a lack of clear majority - kadima has most votes but only less than 1/4 of the population back her.

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  3. Kadima won because the left has a lot more common sense then the right. Meretz and Labor collapsed, if Meretz had gotten 6 seats and Labor 15 it would have been 27-23 Likud. However, the left understood that a vote for Merezt was a vote for Bibi and voted form Kadima.

    The right on the other hand as usual shot itself in the foot. If people had voted Likud instead of Leiberman the Likud would have won easily.

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  4. I agree with that. Livni took votes not from the Likud, but from the left that collapsed.
    Likud lost votes not to Meretz, but to Lieberman and other right wing parties (less though to them)

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  5. I was against Feiglin before the election but I am rethinking.

    Look, aside from pushing MF to 36 Bibi moved far far far away from the right. Coalition w/Kadima, Barak as DM.

    Someone so far cannot be supported by MF. It is like Newt Gingrich supporting Barack Obama. It is no secret that MF is interested in 'stealing' if you want to call it that, the Likud from the current leadership. IF he just kowtows to them and is not an alternative - he cannot declare himself any different than anyone else.

    So, if he had a realisitc chance of getting in- Vote Likud so you get right wing voices in the big party who can lead the party away from the current bozos. But if I am not realistic then you are just voting for Livni/Barak anyway.

    History has shwon that when the left are partners of a Right led gov't the right always buckles to the left's demands.

    So I think MF was right in the end. Actually his position for the future - and his plan is a long term plan - has improved.

    Since I think this election will hurt Bibi in the Likud and there will be demands for his ousting which will create an opening for MF since there is no one the likud today with as much support as Bibi had and the next primaries will see a lot of contenders thinning things out giving MF a good chance.

    We just need to daven that things are not messed up to badly by then.

    Of ocurse, I think it is highly probable that we will have elections within another year.

    No possible combination of the current crapshoot seems too stable.

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  6. Shalom,

    You know that Jews are likened to fish by chazal...

    ...well fish have about a 10 second memory.

    Warmly,

    Simon

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  7. I don't see how Livni can make a government. Just do the math, how does she get from 28 to 61.

    Labor it seems, will really go to the opposition. if so she has 0 chance.
    28 (Kadima)
    15 (Lieberman)
    --------------
    43
    Where does she get another 18 seats from.

    Even with Labor she is still 5 seats short.

    For more see this post of mine Post election analysis

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  8. Bayit Yehudi has mentioned they would not rule out sitting in a Livni govt. Add Likud, Shas and UTJ and she has a government. I dont se eit happening, but it is not so unrealistic that she might convince Bibi to sit with her that Peres should not give her the chance to try.

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  9. Moshe Feiglin is a closet fascist. He doesn't want to run for the Likud premiership because he believes in working with others there - he wants to "take over". He showed this all too clearly by not campaigning for the Likud. (Notice that other religious candidates received many more votes than he did in the primaries. Leah Ness for one)Effie Eitam, on the other hand, worked for the Likud, and hopefully will continue to do so.

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  10. Why would Likud join her? In any case I seriously doubt that Bayit Hayehudi would actually join her government. I also don't believe that Tzippi Livni would make a government with the 3 religious parties.

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  11. I did not say it would happen, but it is not completely impossible, and therefore not unreasonable that Peres would give her the opportunity to try. It would take a lot of compromise, on everyone's part, and I think Livni already showed she cannot accomplish such a thing. But I can see Peres giving her the first chance. Don't forget - he himself came from Kadima and does not like Bibi all that much. So with even a slight chance, he might give it to her.

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  12. I've been having some fun - please take a look at my analysis and let me know what you think!

    ReplyDelete

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