The coalition is once again heading into some shaky ground. It has been very stable until now, as none of the coalition members has any interest in causing new elections.

The latest threat to coalition stability is not, in my opinion, the newest investigation into Netanyahu's financial affairs. That will surely lead to new elections if anything concrete is discovered that leads to an indictment, but the issue with the coalition is now Aryeh Deri and Shabbos.

In a previous government, Interior Minister Silvan Shalom separated the control over making decisions about stores opening on Shabbos from his ministry due to what he said was a conflict of interests. That authority was removed from the Interior Ministry and placed in the hands of a committee created for this purpose.

Aryeh Deri, now the Minister of Interior, wants that authority taken back from the committee and put back into the hands of the Interior Ministry - i.e. him.

The reason he wants this now is due to the committee being set to issue its recommendations regarding the request of the City of Tel Aviv to allow more stores to open on Shabbos. Aryeh Deri is worried that this will lead to more stores being opened legally, and he wants the authity back in order to prevent that.

Deri has supposedly threatened the coalition stability over this, and Minister Litzman has come out in support of Deri.

PM Netanyahu has so far resisted Deri's demands. Netanyahu is afraid that giving the authority back to Deri, thus ensuring the closure of the relevant stores, will give Lapid even more momentum and a sharper rise in the polls at his own expense.

It seems a decision on this matter has been, for now, delayed.
sources: Kikar, Behadrei

Giving in is only a matter of when, as Netanyahu cannot afford coalition instability, especially with polls showing Likud dropping in support and just about everyone else among the relevant players increasing (i.e.Shas, UTJ, Lapid, Habayit Hayehudi). They will surely find a way to make Deri happy while minimizing the damage. Neither Deri nor Netanyahu want elections.

The one question I don't get is that even with Lapid's high numbers it seems the right and left blocs are more or less staying the same. With those numbers, it would be very difficult for Lapid to form a coalition. And furthermore, with all the various parties in Netanyahu's coalition announcing, for whatever reason, that they would reocmmend Netanyahu for Prime Minister in upcoming elections and not Lapid, it seems the next coalition, assuming polls are correct, will have the same, more or less, results as what we have today in government, with perhaps slight shifts. So, if they are all goign to recommend Netanyahu anyways, what game are they playing now threatening elections? I think this further points to it being an empty threat, as they stand nothing to gain by it.