Every year there is some excuse to warn the people that food prices for Pesach are expected to rise. One year it is because of the lack of rain, another year too much rain damaged crops, then there is the strange cow in South America that some won't consider kosher, and another year there is a disease of some sort making meat and/or chicken less available, while another year sees a shortage of imports, and yet another year has some change to the tax structure affecting things. Sometimes these things pan out in the form of shortages and higher prices, while other times they turn out to be false warnings and everything seems more or less normal.

This year's warning about expected high prices is due to the Corona Virus. it seems that if the situation continues to spiral and not get under control, it is expected that far fewer people will travel for Pesach than those that have traveled in previous years.

Food productions takes into account how many people they expect to travel and how many people they expect to stay in Israel to buy the food. With food production (and importers) having taken into account the thousands of Israelis who normally travel for Pesach and do not stay local and buy food here, they now expect, if Corona does indeed thwart the travel plans of many) that there will be far more people in Israel on Pesach than previously expected, and there will not be enough food for everyone. That means the prices will rise.

I figure that just like many will cancel plans and not leave Israel for the holiday, many travelers form other places to Israel will also cancel their plans and not come to Israel for Pesach. Maybe the two will balance each other out, at least somewhat, and the prices can remain relatively stable.

According to Ynet they are expecting an increased demand of 3% to 4% for Pesach food than what they planned for. In addition, many products normally imported from China will not be imported, as the businessmen involved have stopped traveling to China. While some will import chairs, pots, storage containers, clothes, electronics and many other items from Turkey and other places, a shortage can be expected in realms other than food as well. And higher prices because of imports coming from countries other than China.