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Two more questions about the ceasefire agreement (which in principle I think is fine)

1. I did not realize this yesterday but have become aware of it today. Israel signed a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, not Hezbollah. All along we said we have no beef with Lebanon, only Hezbollah, and the hostilities were only with Hezbollah. Why do we need a ceasefire with Lebanon if we were only fighting with Hezbollah? And, can Lebanon be responsible and strong enough to impose its will on Hezbollah?

At best this looks bad, as if Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire only to get France to back down form the ICC ruling. Did Netanyahu agree to this ceasefire not because it is best for the country but because it is best for him?

According to reports, PM Netanyahu has told the mayors of the northern towns to not tell residents too come back home upon implementation of the ceasefire. Netanyahu said there is concern the ceasefire will be violated and fighting will renew at greater levels, leaving the northern towns unsafe for habitation.

If the ceasefire is not guaranteed to bring security to the northern towns and let the residents move back home, why bother with it? The fighting in the north was purely to get the residents back in their homes securely. If the ceasefire arrangement doesnt do that what has been accomplished?

As I have said, if the government and the security forces are ok with the arrangements and feel our borders will be secure, I am ok with a ceasefire. 

My question is, with PM Netanyahu stressing that we will retain the right to renew military activity in Lebanon should Hezbollah violate the agreement -if a rocket is shot, a tunnel dug, a truck carrying weapons enters Lebanon - we will attack. Netanyahu even pointed to Gaza and said regarding the ceasefire (last year) in Gaza they also said we wouldnt really renew the fighting and oh boy did we renew the fighting!

Everything sounds 100% correct

The thing is if this arrangement can work in Lebanon, why cant it have worked in Gaza this year? Netanyahu and his government repeatedly rejected the possibility of a very similar arrangement saying - they'll really let us renew the fighting??? We all know they wont!

Why can this work in Lebanon but not in Gaza which also would have freed the hostages?

מה לעשות? לפיד צודק.

האחד עשה הסכם עם ממשלת לבנון על פיסת מים קטנטנה והשני עושה הסכם עם ארגון טרור רצחני בשם חיזבאללה שחירב את הצפון.

ככה זה במציאות כשאתה לא לועס בוטנים. pic.twitter.com/k3HhMK4aZi

— HolySmoke💨 (@HolySmokexxxx) November 26, 2024

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Many are commenting in favor of this ceasefire deal and many are commenting in opposition to the ceasefire deal.

I personally do not know how to evaluate it, especially because we have very few of the details, so I am willing to go out on a limb and say that if the government and security forces are ok with it and say it gives us the security we need, I am fine with it. We have decimated Hezbollah, even though they still are a force, to the point that they, and Iran, are begging for this deal.

While personally I think we should keep them connected to Hamas and pressure Iran to have Hamas release the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, I did read in a report somewhere that Netanyahu and the IDF consider it a success that they have been disconnected form Hamas and by signing this deal they are isolating Hamas which will put more pressure on them. I am skeptical, but ok.

I do have a question though about the ceasefire. 

For those opposing a ceasefire demanding total victory, if Hezbollah is agreeing to move away from the border and Israel can keep it safe, as I assume the agreement would include so the northern residents can soon go back home, what do we need to achieve militarily that you would consider total victory? What can or will we achieve with more time for the war that we have not achieved already? At what point would you agree that we will have achieved total victory?

And, if this deal gets signed tomorrow and enough of the government supports it, when Netanyahu says we achieved Total Victory in Lebanon against Hezbollah, will he be lying or will that narrative pass?

Interestingly, it is being reported via the New York Times that Tehran has not gotten involved and told Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire that will push them back past the Litani in accordance with UN Resolution 1701. Iran has told Hezbollah that they will help rebuild and re-arm the terror group and this current war should end now.

I know there is some dispute as to whether Israel should or should not have rights of enforcement and be allowed to make excursions into Lebanon when it feels Hezbollah is violating the agreement in some manner. This is a fact that can be a sticking point for such a deal but I believe at some point Hezbollah will agree tot hat as well - Israel can go in anyway at any time, as it has shown, so this shouldnt be a factor. Lebanon itself has protested this demand saying it harms the independence and sovereignty of Lebanon but we all know that is just a funny joke - Lebanon has no sovereignty - it was taken over by Hezbollah and Syria and Iran with no protest. Now's not the time to cry about sovereignty. Save your country Lebanon and dont let that joke of a complaint get in the way and allow your country to be destroyed even further until you eventually agree.

So I am good with a ceasefire agreement if the military and political leadership are comfortable with the arrangements.

All that being said, as I have said before I do not think Israel should agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon without tying it to Gaza. Hezbollah tied itself to Hamas by attacking continually over the past year+ in solidarity with Hamas saying they wont stop until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Israel should keep to that and keep them tied together. Hezbollah and Iran want a ceasefire means they can't take the destruction any longer. Leverage that. Make Iran tell Hamas to come to the table with reasonable demands and offer the hostages in return for an end to the war and surrender without all the other demands that are unacceptable. Iran wants to climb down off this tree, between the destruction they have absorbed and the fact that Trump is coming into office soon and that will be even more damaging to them, they rightfully want to climb down and back off. Only let them if it includes Hamas and the hostages

There not too many details available at this time, but the IDF has announced several times that it has captured massive amounts of military equipment, weapons, armaments, from Hezbollah in Lebanon. Much of the weaponry captured was supplied originally by Russia. 

The question is what to do with all that [possibly] valuable stuff.

From what I understand, Israel won't use at least much of it due to Israel's policy of only using NATO-approved weapons. Destroying it seems to be wasteful, though if there is no other use for it that is what the IDF will continue to do.

MK Dan Ilouz (Likud) has proposed a law by which any of these captured Russian-supplied weapons and equipment that the IDF will not use should be transferred to Ukraine to use in its battle against Russia.

So, the IDF gets first dibs to put whatever it feels it can use into use in its own military efforts.

After the IDF decides it has taken what it will and has no use for the rest, the Defense Ministry should find a way to securely send the rest to Ukraine to use in its war against Russia.

Interestingly, Ilouz writes in the text of the proposal a couple of interesting points.

First, Ilouz explains that this is in order to maintain security stability in the region and internationally and "to assist countries fighting for their sovereignty", Israel should transfer these weapons to Ukraine, etc...

I hope this text won't come back to be used against Israel, as other countries will defend their support for the Palestinians as a country fighting for its sovereignty which the Israeli Right supports while pointing to this law.

Second, Ilouz calls this poetic justice - supporting allies internationally against those who supply our terrorist enemies with weapons with those very weapons. And this would be a poetic justice.

This will probably upset Russia

  -- Defense Minister Yisrael Katz

wow! just one on the job and he has already achieved victory in both Gaza and Lebanon! Good job!

I dont know if it will or wont happen, but here is what I would suggest, were anyone involved going to ask me:

As I recall, Hezbollah tied themselves to Hamas since the beginning of the war. They started firing on Israel on October 8th and claimed it was in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians. Anytime an agreement was proposed, Hezbollah said they would only agree to a ceasefire if it included an end to the war in Gaza as part of a ceasefire with Hamas.

If Hezbollah wants a ceasefire now, I would suggest Israel respond that they accept Hezbollah's statements from the past year connecting them to Hamas and will only agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah if it includes a ceasefire with Hamas, and a ceasefire with Hamas will only happen if Hamas surrenders and dismantles itself and returns the hostages to Israel. 

If Hezbollah is finally feeling battered enough and wants to end this, let the pressure be on them to find a way to pressure Hamas to end it in Gaza too. All roads lead through Iran so it should not be too difficult to find a way to do this (though it might not be too easy to persuade Hamas at first) - they just have to go back to the head of the octopus and make that decision. Iran is feeling a bit battered as well. Their recent statements have changed their tune from things like we will destroy Israel and America to we just want to live in peace and not fight with anybody but it is Israel that is destabilizing the region. They clearly would love a way out of this, and Hezbollah can offer that.

  -- Foreign Minister Israel Katz

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Fetterman for the win:

Liberal host: "There was a young child who was killed who was taking the pager to their parent."
Sen. Fetterman: "Daddy was a member of Hezbollah. That's tragic. He brought that danger and evil into their home." pic.twitter.com/6e4J0U7nvE

— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) October 27, 2024

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Besides for the fact that Israel shouldn't, and won't, agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah unless Hezbollah moves up north of the Litani, there is another condition Israel should demand. 

Israel should continue pounding Hezbollah until Hamas agrees to a ceasefire (under Israel's terms) with a return of all the hostages.

Hezbollah created that linkage, and the world has seemingly accepted it. They say Hezbollahs attacks against Israel for the past year were in solidarity with the Palestinian people of Gaza. As long as there is no ceasefire in Gaza, there will not be a ceasefire with Hezbollah. This is what they have been saying for a long time.  Now that we are pounding them, Israel should announce that it accepts that - there will be no ceasefire with Hezbollah until there is a ceasefire with Hamas and a return of the hostages. 

Maybe then Iran will finally pressure Hamas to end it.

Until then, just keep going.

I must say, he is supper scary and intimidating, especially while making these threats while hiding in a closet in his bunker that is so hot he has difficulty breathing and has to wipe away the sweat from his brow...

The commander of the IAF team that took out Nasrallah hugged and congratulated everyone on the team after the pilots returned form their successful mission - from the pilots to the engineers to the technicians and everyone else involved

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JUST IN ⚡️@RotterNet reports that Iran has asked France and Lebanon to approach Israel for permission to send a plane to Lebanon to retrieve Nasrallah's body.

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 29, 2024

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I find this curious. 

There has been mostly quiet between Lebanon and Israel for about two decades. We can easily go back to that if Hezbollah would just stop firing rockets at Israel. We dont need any fancy arrangement. The issues in Gaza are between Israel and Gaza, nothing to do with Lebanon. 

If Hezbollah feels they have to show solidarity with Hamas and shoot at Israel, what kind of ceasefire can we come to? 

And if this means they plan to get Hamas to be part of the ceasefire so that both borders will quiet down, good luck - Hamas has refused every ceasefire arrangement since March. And now Sinwar has been incommunicado for the past weeks...

This seems like an exercise in futility, but thanks for trying! Any attempt at peace and quiet and less killing and warfare is worth an effort.

حزب الله منتصر.

— الإمام الخامنئي (@ar_khamenei) September 25, 2024

This set off a firestorm of replies laughing at Iran and Hezbollah.

I couldnt find the actual tweet (only the screenshot of it), but the Assutta Hospital of Ashdod had a great response.

Assuta Hospital of Ashdod replied to Mr Khamenei saying we will be happy to arrange for you an eye exam. We are a public hospital open to all (and among the most advanced in Israel)

Hezbollah published the following warning to Israelis..