The agreement on the table, as reported, does not look great for Israel's interests (to put it mildly), but we have been in similar situations before. Israeli reporesentatives are not saying anything, Trump is talking about it being a great deal, and the ranians are saying things that contradict things they are supposedly agreeing to. 

Is it a head fake and the USA is about to go on the attack again while everyone thinks a deal is about to be signed, or is a deal really about to be signed? I am not sure we have any way to make an educated guess. I also would not be surprised if we don't get a deal signed (at least in the coming days) but we also do not get an attack but Trump announces an extension to continue working out the details or something like that.

Confusing times. Sometimes this type of situation can be worse than an actual deal (even a bad one) or attack - can't really make plans, people do not know what to do, terror continues (at least from Hezbollah)

If not for all the "Bibisitting" the US administration is doing to make sure we dont go back to war, the ceasefire might well have already been ended...yet to Trump this is everlasting peace. 

Lu Yehi, as they say... let it be.. who knew we could achieve everlasting peace just like that...

We Israelis were told about the ceasefire by President Trump and by the Iranians but our own government stayed silent about it for a long time, so we in Israel had no idea what was true, what was bluster, what was happening, and what was real or fake. Eventually the Israeli government confirmed it as well. Despite the ceasefire the Iranians shot missiles at Israel. Israel was going to retaliate and Trump seems to have harshly told Israel to back off. Strange day.

The ceasefire seems imposed. It also seems like subterfuge with Trump going crazy about Israel possibly retaliating despite being so close over the past two weeks. Maybe it is more deception and a distraction with something sneaky to come out of nowhere in a few days. 

During the campaign against Iran Netanyahu strutted around proud of what Israel had accomplished, and rightfully so. He even gave interviews (to news outlets other than Channel 14) and press conferences with questions, that he rarely does, and speeches proudly tooting his horn. he also sounded like a leader again, and less like the divisive politician worried about his own interests as he has acted and sounded over the past 4-5 years. Now with Netanyahu receding into the shadows to avoid Trump's anger he again seems back to being the Netanyahu of recent rather than the Netanyahu of old where he suddenly doesnt talk to the Israelis anymore and his personal politics is going front and center. 

The Israeli government at some point released another statement about accepting the ceasefire and that Israel had accomplished all of its goals in Iran so can end it now. The statement is strange because just yesterday members of the war cabinet spoke about how we still have what to do and it will end in a few days when it is all accomplished, and just this morning the Iranians shot ballistic missiles at Israel killing several people and wounding many more. The official war goals had been to dismantle the nuclear program and to dismantle the threat of ballistic missiles. The first one seems to have been accomplished with flying colors, while the second makes it seem like the ceasefire was imposed because that is clearly not something that has been accomplished.

All that being said, the mission in Iran seemed, using the few tools we can judge it with, to have been a great success and we Israelis had some very proud moments over the past 11 days. The issue of the ceasefire is strange and unclear and from what has been said publicly it has seem to left a bad taste in the mouths of many. Despite all that, I think this is mostly a minor thing relative to what Israel has done over the past 11 days, and the lashing from Trump is also minor relative to what has been accomplished with and by the USA, over the past 11 days.

Minister Goldknopf said something a little more questionable, but mostly along the same lines. Goldknopf said Netanyahu is like Moses leading the Jews out of Egypt - we are fully behind you and with you. Goldknopf said "we do not know what is good and what is not good. Any deal you bring, we will be with you. We must free all the hostages, until the last one. We pray all the hostages should return home safely."

After these comments were made the criticism was fast in coming, and mostly from the National Religious. The Director General of the Hatzionut Hadatit party Yehuda Wald criticized saying this attitude of leaving notes with their votes and leaving the meeting (referring to the government meeting to approve the hostage deal on Friday night two weeks ago) is outrageous and calling for an end to the war knowing it means Hamas will strengthen itself and resupply and reorganize - we are the ones who are going to fight and die after the next massacre, not the Haredim!   

Wald then accused the Haredim of cozying up to the "Left" and requesting a Haredi Draft Law that won't be harsh and significant, in exchange for submission to Hamas which is what the Left believes in.

The Haredim in return have responded saying they have held this position all along that they will support any hostage deal brought by Netanyahu as redeeming captives is the biggest of mitzvahs and it has nothing to do with the Draft Law.

First of all, the Left does not believe in submission to Hamas, even if they believe the war should be conducted differently in some aspects and if they look for a peaceful way to live together (which you can fairly and reasonably dispute is possible).

Second, Wald is talking like only the Dati Leumi are fighting in the war and having soldiers killed. Yes the Dati Leumi are, and in disproportional numbers, but they dont own the battlefield and they dont own the military funerals. They are fighting with and alongside all of Israel, true minus the Arabs and minus most Haredim, but alongside 85% of Israel..

Third, the Haredi politicians (always anonymously) have said over the past half year or so several times an end of the war would be good for them as it would loosen up the pressure on them about the draft issues. Formulating a draft law acceptable to them is difficult with the war ongoing. Is their support for a full hostage deal really motivated by it meaning the war will officially be over and they will subsequently be able to put together a more acceptable law proposal?

Fourth, the Draft Law is not dependent on the Left. We have a right wing government and they are having difficulty with the law regardless of the Left. And if the Left would form a government today, I do not believe they would be so forthcoming with an easy draft law in exchange for support. A few years ago they might have (and the Haredim claim such offers were made back then), but today, after October 7, it would not happen. Also, if the Haredim think it would happen just because it might have been offered a few years ago - they should have taken the deal then.

As an aside, back to my comment above about what Goldknopf said - I too did not like that they did not participate in the meeting and just left their votes on written slips of paper, even if we know because they said in advance they would support any deal brought by Netanyahu. As ministers it is their job and responsibility to hear the details and weigh the issues, not just to rely on someone else outsourcing the decisions - even if we know which way they are planning to vote.. What Goldknopf said today at the conference is more egregious than that. We dont know anything, we dont know what is goo and what is not good, we'll just rely on you. You are a minister and it is your job to be responsible and do due diligence and try to understand as much as possible what you are taking responsibility for. This is not the vaad bayit, the homeowners association, of your condo deciding whether to install a camera int he lobby or whether or not to plant more tulips in the building garden. The attitude of senior ministers who ultimately share responsibility for decisions made but outsource it with no interest in hearing details is preposterous. 

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The return of the hostages was long overdue. The war was not really going anywhere at this point with just more and more soldiers being killed or injured as they were sitting ducks in Gaza with a low intensity situation going on. We had tremendous accomplishments in the war. If the war was only going to continue at low intensity with no intention to conquer Hamas entirely and replace them, or to conquer and hold land or anything significant like that, better it should end and our soldiers, and hostages, should come home.

Israel can enforce this deal, Israel can prevent Hamas from rearming, Israel can be more aggressive against Hamas violations, against Hamas attacks, unlike in the past when Israel allowed Hamas to attack without any real response, when Israel allowed Hamas to build, when Israel saw Hamas as a necessary force in Gaza, when Israel let the money flow into Gaza despite knowing it was going to build terrorist infrastructure. Israel can and has to ensure that won't happen again. Even if the deal is not great (eg too many terrorists being released), it is not a deal of surrender and it is not a deal of defeat for Israel. 

Did we accomplish everything? I don't know - other than some meaningless words of "total victory" nothing was ever really defined as to what that would look like. Even if we did not accomplish everything people might have wanted, we accomplished an awful lot.

Bring them home now!

Two more questions about the ceasefire agreement (which in principle I think is fine)

1. I did not realize this yesterday but have become aware of it today. Israel signed a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, not Hezbollah. All along we said we have no beef with Lebanon, only Hezbollah, and the hostilities were only with Hezbollah. Why do we need a ceasefire with Lebanon if we were only fighting with Hezbollah? And, can Lebanon be responsible and strong enough to impose its will on Hezbollah?

At best this looks bad, as if Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire only to get France to back down form the ICC ruling. Did Netanyahu agree to this ceasefire not because it is best for the country but because it is best for him?

According to reports, PM Netanyahu has told the mayors of the northern towns to not tell residents too come back home upon implementation of the ceasefire. Netanyahu said there is concern the ceasefire will be violated and fighting will renew at greater levels, leaving the northern towns unsafe for habitation.

If the ceasefire is not guaranteed to bring security to the northern towns and let the residents move back home, why bother with it? The fighting in the north was purely to get the residents back in their homes securely. If the ceasefire arrangement doesnt do that what has been accomplished?

As I have said, if the government and the security forces are ok with the arrangements and feel our borders will be secure, I am ok with a ceasefire. 

My question is, with PM Netanyahu stressing that we will retain the right to renew military activity in Lebanon should Hezbollah violate the agreement -if a rocket is shot, a tunnel dug, a truck carrying weapons enters Lebanon - we will attack. Netanyahu even pointed to Gaza and said regarding the ceasefire (last year) in Gaza they also said we wouldnt really renew the fighting and oh boy did we renew the fighting!

Everything sounds 100% correct

The thing is if this arrangement can work in Lebanon, why cant it have worked in Gaza this year? Netanyahu and his government repeatedly rejected the possibility of a very similar arrangement saying - they'll really let us renew the fighting??? We all know they wont!

Why can this work in Lebanon but not in Gaza which also would have freed the hostages?

מה לעשות? לפיד צודק.

האחד עשה הסכם עם ממשלת לבנון על פיסת מים קטנטנה והשני עושה הסכם עם ארגון טרור רצחני בשם חיזבאללה שחירב את הצפון.

ככה זה במציאות כשאתה לא לועס בוטנים. pic.twitter.com/k3HhMK4aZi

— HolySmoke💨 (@HolySmokexxxx) November 26, 2024

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Many are commenting in favor of this ceasefire deal and many are commenting in opposition to the ceasefire deal.

I personally do not know how to evaluate it, especially because we have very few of the details, so I am willing to go out on a limb and say that if the government and security forces are ok with it and say it gives us the security we need, I am fine with it. We have decimated Hezbollah, even though they still are a force, to the point that they, and Iran, are begging for this deal.

While personally I think we should keep them connected to Hamas and pressure Iran to have Hamas release the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, I did read in a report somewhere that Netanyahu and the IDF consider it a success that they have been disconnected form Hamas and by signing this deal they are isolating Hamas which will put more pressure on them. I am skeptical, but ok.

I do have a question though about the ceasefire. 

For those opposing a ceasefire demanding total victory, if Hezbollah is agreeing to move away from the border and Israel can keep it safe, as I assume the agreement would include so the northern residents can soon go back home, what do we need to achieve militarily that you would consider total victory? What can or will we achieve with more time for the war that we have not achieved already? At what point would you agree that we will have achieved total victory?

And, if this deal gets signed tomorrow and enough of the government supports it, when Netanyahu says we achieved Total Victory in Lebanon against Hezbollah, will he be lying or will that narrative pass?

Interestingly, it is being reported via the New York Times that Tehran has not gotten involved and told Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire that will push them back past the Litani in accordance with UN Resolution 1701. Iran has told Hezbollah that they will help rebuild and re-arm the terror group and this current war should end now.

I know there is some dispute as to whether Israel should or should not have rights of enforcement and be allowed to make excursions into Lebanon when it feels Hezbollah is violating the agreement in some manner. This is a fact that can be a sticking point for such a deal but I believe at some point Hezbollah will agree tot hat as well - Israel can go in anyway at any time, as it has shown, so this shouldnt be a factor. Lebanon itself has protested this demand saying it harms the independence and sovereignty of Lebanon but we all know that is just a funny joke - Lebanon has no sovereignty - it was taken over by Hezbollah and Syria and Iran with no protest. Now's not the time to cry about sovereignty. Save your country Lebanon and dont let that joke of a complaint get in the way and allow your country to be destroyed even further until you eventually agree.

So I am good with a ceasefire agreement if the military and political leadership are comfortable with the arrangements.

All that being said, as I have said before I do not think Israel should agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon without tying it to Gaza. Hezbollah tied itself to Hamas by attacking continually over the past year+ in solidarity with Hamas saying they wont stop until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Israel should keep to that and keep them tied together. Hezbollah and Iran want a ceasefire means they can't take the destruction any longer. Leverage that. Make Iran tell Hamas to come to the table with reasonable demands and offer the hostages in return for an end to the war and surrender without all the other demands that are unacceptable. Iran wants to climb down off this tree, between the destruction they have absorbed and the fact that Trump is coming into office soon and that will be even more damaging to them, they rightfully want to climb down and back off. Only let them if it includes Hamas and the hostages

The talk of ceasefire in Lebanon has heated up again.. so I wanted to comment on victory as it has been on my mind for a while..

What is victory? How does this war end? When will a ceasefire be justified? Are we going to fight forever until someone on the other side holds up a white flag of surrender? Minister Betzalel Smotritch said the other day that he will not support ending the war until every last Hamasnik has been killed - is that even possible or is he condemning us to live with an active war forever?

Let's start by mentioning that the return of the hostages is one of the objectives of the war, so perhaps there is no victory until that is achieved. the thing is, it looks like this can only be achieved by a deal. The vaunted "only increased military pressure will bring them home" has not [yet] proven itself. While the IDF conducted heroic rescue operations, they succeeded in bringing home just several hostages, and killed several as well. More hostages have been brought home by a deal than by military operations, and the numbers aren't even close. And with the rescue operations, as heroic as they are and as happy we are for each hostage that gets rescued and for each body that gets recovered and brought back for a Jewish burial, many more hostages remain in Gaza with their whereabouts unknown despite the 13 months of war and destruction of Gaza above and below ground, with Hamas seemingly not having budged an iota in its demands when discussing the possibility of a deal.

So with the return of the hostages being one of the objectives of the war it might be difficult to declare victory as long as that has not been achieved.

Personally I do believe that from a military perspective we won the war a long time ago. 

Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah were strong enough to destroy Israel, though they made a lot of trouble for us and maybe Hezbollah could have made more. But the IDF recovered and destroyed Hamas and then went and destroyed Hezbollah. once the IDF started getting to work, Hamas and Hezbollah had no chance. They are fighting a war with rockets, with their fighters and rocket supplies being diminished every day by the IDF, while we are destroying everything about them with our air force and ground troops. Militarily we already won, even though the war continues. We can stop at any time that we deem we have hurt them badly enough and they are willing to give us the security we demand..

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If this is true, it would be criminal of Netanyahu and a betrayal of the people of Israel. Our sons and daughters, husbands, fathers, sisters, brothers need to continue dying and being injured in Lebanon (and Gaza, which might not have the same arrangement), having their lives destroyed, their families torn apart, soldiers undergoing mental traumas, people's lives upended for an extra couple of months all so Netanyahu can curry favor with Trump, rather than the need for battle? If true, this would be disgraceful. There will be plenty of other wins to give Trump later.

I dont know if it will or wont happen, but here is what I would suggest, were anyone involved going to ask me:

As I recall, Hezbollah tied themselves to Hamas since the beginning of the war. They started firing on Israel on October 8th and claimed it was in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians. Anytime an agreement was proposed, Hezbollah said they would only agree to a ceasefire if it included an end to the war in Gaza as part of a ceasefire with Hamas.

If Hezbollah wants a ceasefire now, I would suggest Israel respond that they accept Hezbollah's statements from the past year connecting them to Hamas and will only agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah if it includes a ceasefire with Hamas, and a ceasefire with Hamas will only happen if Hamas surrenders and dismantles itself and returns the hostages to Israel. 

If Hezbollah is finally feeling battered enough and wants to end this, let the pressure be on them to find a way to pressure Hamas to end it in Gaza too. All roads lead through Iran so it should not be too difficult to find a way to do this (though it might not be too easy to persuade Hamas at first) - they just have to go back to the head of the octopus and make that decision. Iran is feeling a bit battered as well. Their recent statements have changed their tune from things like we will destroy Israel and America to we just want to live in peace and not fight with anybody but it is Israel that is destabilizing the region. They clearly would love a way out of this, and Hezbollah can offer that.

Besides for the fact that Israel shouldn't, and won't, agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah unless Hezbollah moves up north of the Litani, there is another condition Israel should demand. 

Israel should continue pounding Hezbollah until Hamas agrees to a ceasefire (under Israel's terms) with a return of all the hostages.

Hezbollah created that linkage, and the world has seemingly accepted it. They say Hezbollahs attacks against Israel for the past year were in solidarity with the Palestinian people of Gaza. As long as there is no ceasefire in Gaza, there will not be a ceasefire with Hezbollah. This is what they have been saying for a long time.  Now that we are pounding them, Israel should announce that it accepts that - there will be no ceasefire with Hezbollah until there is a ceasefire with Hamas and a return of the hostages. 

Maybe then Iran will finally pressure Hamas to end it.

Until then, just keep going.

I find this curious. 

There has been mostly quiet between Lebanon and Israel for about two decades. We can easily go back to that if Hezbollah would just stop firing rockets at Israel. We dont need any fancy arrangement. The issues in Gaza are between Israel and Gaza, nothing to do with Lebanon. 

If Hezbollah feels they have to show solidarity with Hamas and shoot at Israel, what kind of ceasefire can we come to? 

And if this means they plan to get Hamas to be part of the ceasefire so that both borders will quiet down, good luck - Hamas has refused every ceasefire arrangement since March. And now Sinwar has been incommunicado for the past weeks...

This seems like an exercise in futility, but thanks for trying! Any attempt at peace and quiet and less killing and warfare is worth an effort.

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The right wing news media station, Channel 14, did not like that and have attacked Deri saying that just like in Oslo Deri is supporting the deal with Hamas. By adding the "like in Oslo" it is clear criticism from the Right.

What I dont get is why they are attacking Deri for this. And I am no big fan of Aryeh Deri. I just don't get why Deri is their target for this deal. The deal was brought by PM Netanyahu, the PM they think can do no wrong, and is being pushed by him. And they are attacking Deri for it? If they don't like it, attack Netanyahu. If they trust Netanyahu, why are they against the deal?