I don't normally relate to polls, especially mid-term polls, because they are pointless and almost meaningless. If polls get the electoral results so wrong around election time, how much more wrong they must be when it is not elections season, in my opinion.

Despite that, there is a poll being bandied about now that is indicating that if elections were to be held today, Shas would not achieve the minimum threshold and would not make it back into the Knesset.

Again, this is a meaningless poll. There is no campaigning going on and presumably, if there were, Shas would dredge up the memory of Rav Ovadia and get some more votes from that. In addition, just by the nature of campaigning they would wake up at least some of their more complacent voters and get a boost from that. And of course the call of the rabbis to vote Shas would draw in a bunch more.

I really do not think they are prone to disappearing right now, though it is possible they might continue to shrink.

That being said, I do wonder where all these Shas voters are going. When Shas was formed, they took a lot of their voters from the Likud, some from Mafdal, and then a bit from a few other parties. Likud is not growing in the polls but might get a few former Shas supporters. Habayit Hayehudi might get some. UTJ will get a bunch of the more yeshivish Shas voters. Maybe the new small parties that crop up and disappear will pick some up. I don't know but these polls make me wonder where they are all going if they are no longer supporting Shas.

So, are the current powerful rains we are experiencing the result of:

a. the Jews of the Diaspora beginning to say "vten tal umatar l'vracha" in Shmoeh Esrei yesterday
b. the Jews of Israel having just started to say the special "aneinu" prayer for rain, as per the decision of the Chief Rabbis?
c. all of the above
d. none of the above
e. other (specify)

What say you?

I don't pay attention to polls, especially this early in an election season. They are wildly inaccurate even in the best of times, let alone now when the various parties are only just starting to campaign. Despite that, every now and then some interesting point shows up in the information.

Someone floated a suggestion that Moshe Kachlon should open his own political party focusing on social issues and run in the upcoming elections. Immediately the pollsters went out to see how much strength such a party would garner.

Now, I heard Moshe Kachlon on the radio saying he has no idea where that idea came from, he is not involved in it, he has committed to supporting the Likud, just a few days ago he directed the Likud convention to discuss and decide on the unified list with Yisrael Beiteinu, and that he is not opening a new party.

Despite his denial, rumors persist and the polls are the polls. It turns out that at this point, the polls predict that if Kachlon would open a party and run, he would win 20 mandates. Very nice.

(side not... I think if Kachlon chose to run a new party, he would likely seriously hurt the Likud. One point I add is that those talking about such a poll keep repeating that Kachlon would get 20 seats if he formed a centrist party. I don't know why they assume it would automatically be centrist. Moshe Kachlon is generally, on security and Land of Israel issues, considered to be on the Right side of the Likud, not closer to the Center..)

The interesting thing is what I heard on the radio this morning. The pollsters have taken it further and have new information for us. If Kachlon would open this party, it would get 20 mandates. if he would add Tzippi Livni to his list, they would get 26 mandates!

Tzippi Livni is like the Lebron James of Israeli politics. She is [considered] a superstar with no home. the pollsters have placed her with the Labor party, with Ehud Olmert in a new party, with Yair Lapid, with Ehud Olmert in Kadima, a new centrist party of her own, and now with Moshe Kachlon's potential party. The only arty I havent seen her associated with [yet] is Likud Beiteinu. I'd like to see polls showing what would happen if she went back that way.

It seems that Tzippi Livni has no ideals or path of her own and can pretty much fit in anywhere...




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A poll was recently published that says 54% of Egyptians want the 1979 peace treaty with Israel canceled.

Polls, like statistics, are basically worthless, as they tend to be influenced by how the questioner worded and asked the question, which we, the readers, have no way of really knowing precisely what was stressed. Unfortunately, politicians tend to lend a lot of weight to the results of polls.

The joke surrounding this poll is that if they want the peace treaty canceled (actually, if the Egyptians decide to cancel the peace treaty because that is how a majority of those polled responded), we can expect to have the Sinai returned to us immediately in exchange for their ripping up the piece of paper and millions of dollars annually in trade and commerce and a quiet northern border.

I see it slightly differently.

They want to cancel the peace treaty because they see that it used to be to get Israel to give away land a hostile country had to sign a peace treaty, promise friendship and business, and normalize relations. Now they see that Israel gives away land to hostile entities for free, expecting nothing but empty promises in exchange, or even as goodwill measures.

So, they wish to cancel the peace treaty because now they realize that today Israel would probably give them the Sinai for free, expecting nothing in exchange, simply as a gesture of goodwill and hope for the future.

As you can, I added a poll right above the posts, It will be up for a few days. Let me know what you think.

I extended the deadline for voting in the poll running at the top of the sidebar for another week... so if you have not taken the opportunity to vote, you now have more time...

Check out the newest poll on the top right in the sidebar. For which party do you plan on voting in the upcoming BS elections?

If I left out a party you think should be included, let me know and I will add it..

Out of curiosity, I created a poll. You can find it on the right side in the sidebar (at the top).

Who would you vote for, for mayor of Bet Shemesh?

I included all the candidates who have declared themselves officially up to this point (and I included Vaknin who has not yet officially declared, but he is the incumbent).

Please take a moment and vote. Obviously this will not be a scientific poll, or a poll that will be any indication of trends in the upcoming elections that can be relied upon by anybody wanting to make a prediction, but it will satisfy my, and maybe yours as well, curiosity...

So not only do you get to vote in November, you get to vote in September too!

In the past few days we have been inundated with statistics. I do not know if it is a certain time of year that the media has to run and publicize these studies, or if it is just "coincidence" so many studies coming at the same time.

Anyway, a couple of the more interesting stats that the media has been headlining:

• 85% of Israelis think there is a lot of corruption in the current government.

That makes me go hmmmm.. What do the other 15% think? After all, The Prime Minister is under investigation for 3 separate criminal probes, including bribery, tender fixing, and fraud, among others. The Finance Minister is now under investigation for obstruction of justice and embezzling funds upwards of 5.5 million shekels. The Justice Minister is on trial for sexual harassment and indecency. The President is under investigation and nearly under indictment for sexual harassment and possibly rape, along with illegal wiretapping and obstruction of Justice. The head of the Defense Committee is under indictment for job fixing. The Minister of Strategic Affairs is under investigation for various things such as fraud, bribery and other things. Those are just the investigations that I remember off the top of my head.

Aside from that there is the fact that the people in the main positions in government are inexperienced and more adept at political spin than at running a government... That includes today's appointment of the latest minister - the Minister of Science and Technology. The inexperienced Defense Minister appointed to a this position a man (MK Raleb Majadele) who is a high school dropout. The appointment is being explained by the pundits as an attempt to draw support from the Arab community (Raleb Majadele is the first ever Muslim Arab to be appointed minister in an Israeli government) in anticipation of the upcoming Labor primaries. So the inexperienced Defense Minister appointed an inexperienced Science Minister for personal and political reasons, rather than for professional reasons.

So I am not sure why 15% of Israelis do not think the government is overloaded with corruption..

• 1% of Israelis think that PM Olmert is doing a "very good" job.

This, too, makes me go hmmm. Who is this one percent? Ehud Olmert's immediate family? Nah, can't be. Most of them do not live in Israel. Maybe it is the people who are members of his coalition and government. I do not know why anybody would think he is doing a "very good" job. Maybe 1% would think he has not done horribly, but "very good"? I do not get it. What can be attributed to Olmert that rates his job as being well done? by any standards?

• This one is my favorite, but it is really a poll and not a stat (though the stats come from polls, so maybe they are all equally poll and statistic): If elections were held today, Kadima would sink to 12 seats.

I am actually surprised they would get so many seats, but 12 seats is also a good sign. The analysts are saying that 12 seats in the polls indicate that the Kadima party is on its way to oblivion, following in the trail blazed by The Shinui party and the Merkaz party...

I love answering polls on the telephone. All sorts of polls. Come dinnertime and the phone will ring and it is someone saying "Can I just ask you a few questions? It will take just two minutes." For some reason I cannot resist. Usually the poll is about something mundane like what cereal I prefer or what kind of charities I donate to with boring questionairres. I feel as though I am having some sort of influence on the marketplace; of products and of ideas.

NOTE: I do not get these pollsters often. Just a few times a year.

Tonight I answered the phone and it is a polster. She wants to ask me a few questions. No problem, go ahead.

This was a pretty serious poll. It was about the state of security of the world. She asked me about the Iraq war increasing or decreasing the level of security. She asked me about workd keaders being dangerous or not. All sorts of questions that you could discuss with someone for hours and not come to a conclusion on any of them, yet I had to answer about 10 of these questions in one word sentences with 3 seconds to think about it. As a matter of fact, I now realize that your true opinions might be easier to get to when you have to be brief quickly. More so than when you have plenty of time to pontificate and play devils advocate...

Anyway, thinking back afterwards about the questions and my answers, I find it ironic that George Bush is lumped into categories with people like Ahmadinejad, Bin Laden and Kim (the North Korean guy).

And by the way, based on the way the questions were worded and the choices I had for answers, George Bush turns out to be just as dangerous to world security as the North Korean guy.

One more thing - they always want to know about you at the end of the questions. They need to know the demographics I guess. they ask how old I am and am I male or female, where I live, etc.. On equestion always irks me. They always ask, "What kind of Jew are you? Hiloni? Traditional? Haredi? Dati Leumi?"

I always answer, "Just a simple Jew".

They usually get confused and refuse to accept that. They insist on putting me into a category. I always insist and say, "Just a Jew".