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Mar 26, 2006

My election predictions

WestBankMama over at the WestBankBlog has thrown down the gauntlet and offered her predictions as to the results of the upcoming elections, and then asked for other blogger's predictions.

Instead of posting in the comments there, I decided to make this a full-blown post.
Now, I am not sure if these are "predictions" or what I hope will happen or some sort of combination of the two, and these "predictions" are based on nothing concrete, other than my own armchair analysis of the continuing polls, talking to people, watching the trends and trying to keep my finger on the pulse of the nation... My stocks do not do too well, so I would guess that my prediction capabilities are kind of weak, so do not use these if you are going to be betting on election results (and yes, there are betting sites taking bets on elections results, and no I will not link to them)

Here we go:

Kadima 26
Likud 19
Labor 18
Yisrael Beiteinu 12
Shas 10
Arab parties 7
Meretz 6
Aleh Yarok 3
Marzel 2
Shinui 2

This is a full prediction that totals 120 Knesset seats. I hope I am wrong in the sense that Kadima gets less than what I predicted (thereby increasing more seats in the right wing parties) but this is my prediction.

I hope Marzel gets in. Despite the fact that I would expect him to be ineffective in Knesset, as everyone else will automatically discount anything he says based on who he is, it will be refreshing watching someone who only says what he believes and will fight for Jewish values like no other party. Also, if he gets in, watch the petitions to the Supreme Court start right away to disqualify him due to racism.


  1. Interesting predictions - the only real surprise for me is that you think that Shinui will get two - even the real lefties have said that there is no chance for them!

  2. I think they will get in by the skin of their teeth. I also think Marzel will get in..


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