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The terms of the deal as made public that is on the table now is very difficult. As I have said before, I am happy it is not my decision to make. The main overriding principle in my mind is that the war can always continue later after a break, while the longer we postpone getting the hostages out the fewer will remain alive, the fewer will remain retrievable, so we probably should get them out now if a serious deal arises, even with bad terms, though the terms we were made aware of were really bad.

But Netanyahu is stuck. If he makes the deal, he likely loses his government (if Ben Gvir and Smotritch follow through with their threats). if he doesnt make the deal, the quagmire likely gets worse (nobody likes a long war so people will get more and more upset about it as time goes on, plus the hostage situation) until one day when he finally declares we have won the war. While extending the war seems to help him stay in power, that may not work much longer, as people wont put up with it at some point, and a long war is just bad - people dont really have the staying power en masse.

After thinking about it for a bit, I think Netanyahu should make this his stand, if there is truth to the reports right now that a deal is being imminently decided on. I think Netanyahu's best move, if his decision is to go to a deal, or maybe that his decision should be to go to the deal, and immediately take it to elections. Instead of waiting for Smotritch or Ben Gvir, Netanyahu should announce the hostage deal and that he is dismantling the government and going to elections. Then he can run on his concern for the hostages along with having put together a popular and successful war that still needs to be finished (of course he will say only he can finish it, etc).

  -- Minister Itamar Ben Gvir

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🚨 Breaking: @UNRWA employees reveal what they really do in Gaza 👇

Speaker on 🔊
pic.twitter.com/PHyWV3TR38

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) January 30, 2024

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With less than a month to go until election day we are seeing some activity in the ranks of the candidates.

Today had Gur signing a deal of support for Moshe Abutbol as mayor of Bet Shemesh. While we don't know what they get in return, Minister Yitzchak Goldknopf and his team signed with Abutbol and will campaign on his behalf. 

That means Agudat Israel is split, with Gur and Vizhnitz supporting Abutbol, and Shlomei Emunim and Belz (and some small groups) supporting Degel Hatorah's candidate Shmuel Greenberg for mayor.

I dont think any parties [yet] have signed support for Aliza Bloch, the current mayor up for re-election. 

Several other parties have still not [yet] announced which candidate they support for mayor.

Besides for getting support from at least some of the remaining parties, Bloch's best hope seems to be to benefit from a Haredi split - which has now actually happened. 

With elections scheduled for the end of February, there is still plenty of time for a lot to happen.

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  -- MK Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beyteynu)

Netanyahu said in response to a journalist asking a question about Likud MK Tali Gotliv spouting crazy conspiracy theories that "Again, while I am fighting Hamas, you are fighting against me" and refused to answer the actual question. The journalist himself is one who had spent over 100 days in miluim fighting in Gaza and had just recently been released. 

I normally avoid quoting Lieberman (and Lapid) because of hateful things he (they) have said in the past, but recently Avigdor Lieberman has been very right and logical about so many things...