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Jan 30, 2019

Polls show Gantz-unity defeating Netanyahu

The news media are excited about a new poll that indicates that if Gantz, Yaalon, Lapid and the rest of the Left would all join forces and run together as a united party, they would defeat Netanyahu and the Likud. The poll shows they would obtain 34 seats compared to Likud's 27 seats.

Forgetting for a moment that polls are almost useless in Israel, as they are almost always way off, and only might be good for showing trends rather than predicting results, what I find interesting about this poll is the proposition of unity among the Left to defeat Netanyahu.

The problem I see with it, besides for the unlikelihood of it happening due to ego and other issues is that even if the Left does unite and gets 34 seats and surpasses the Likud... with what other parties will they make a coalition? 34 seats might make you the biggest party but without other parties to sit in a coalition with, they still cannot form a government. I am sure Shas and UTJ would find a way to justify going on, despite all their talk about not sitting with Lapid or Gantz or others who talk about Reform Kotel and drafting Haredim and chilul shabbos, but that still does not get them a coalition.. the other parties are all mostly to the Right and would not naturally be options, though perhaps another 1 or 2 small parties might succeed and sit with them.

So, unity might be great but I still do not see, not from the recent polls, how it gives them enough to form a government


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1 comment:

  1. Do you remember when Bibi wanted Ehud Barak as Defence Minister so he passed a law making it easier for a group of MKs to break with their party?

    If Gantz finds a way to win, I am sure that all the 'right wing' parties will be as loyal to Bibi as he has been to them. I don't think parties will need to promise that they will not sit in a coalition with Gantz, the way we have seen parties promising to not sit with Bibi from the left parties. Being right wing in a 'National Unity' Government doesn't sound so bad. That is probably why Bibi is trying so hard to stick Gantz with the Left Wing label. I am not so sure that strategy is going to work.

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