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Jun 24, 2019

Likud working to reverse Knesset dispersal and cancel elections?

All the news sites are reporting that the Likud is trying to reverse the law that dispersed the Knesset and forced new elections.

According to reports it seems to be unclear as to what is required for such a reversal, with some saying a simple majority of 61 MKs could pass such a reversal while other definitions of the law suggest 80 MKs would be required.

Either way, the proposal going around would be to abandon the elections and let the 21st Knesset stand as it is and a unity government of sorts would be formed between Likud and Kachol Lavan, and maybe some other small parties that might be willing to join as junior partners.

The chances of this actually happening are next to nothing, but never say never in Israeli politics. Stranger things have happened. 

That being said, let's imagine it happening for a moment.

The biggest bloc of voters is found between the centrist right Likud party and the centrist-left Kachol Lavan party. With the Likud seemingly still unable to form a right wing government, and Kachol Lavan seemingly unable to form a left wing government, the next sensible attempt would be a centrist government formed by Likud and Kachol Lavan together. Such a government, if they could work it out and live together, would represent the largest bloc of voters.

If it were to happen, the parties on the extreme right and left would definitely be out. There is no way Meretz would join or be allowed in, and the United Right would likely be out as well, especially if they do not split from the Otzma Yehudit members, and maybe even the Ichud Leumi members. Labor is almost irrelevant, so they could join and the Haredi parties could also theoretically join, though they would have a problem with the Yair Lapid faction of Kachol Lavan and would either have to find a way to come to terms with them or stay out. Lieberman's Yisrael Beyteynu could join, but I have a feeling Netanyahu would veto them.

Assuming the Haredi parties do not join, because of Lapid, the Haredi parties would likely see this as a betrayal by their natural coalition partner they openly supported from the beginning and offered their unwavering support. They will learn that Netanyahu might like them, and might even prefer them, but has no loyalty to them. He has abandoned them in the past and wouold do so again. When it works out, great. And when it does not work, that is also fine. And really he should not be loyal to them in this way - Netanyahu is head of Likud, not head of Shas or UTJ. His job is to form a government and run the State of Israel, not keep this or that person happy.

Labor's irrelevance means adding them would be just to be slightly more representative, but nor not much gain. They could just as easily be left out, but there really isnt reason to, unless Labor refuses because of its more hardcore side, as represented by Stav Shafir.

Again, it seems unlikely to happen, and if it does there will probably be some legal challenges. If it happens, the landscape will get even more interesting. I imagine a unity government, if agreed to, would have Netanyahu agreeing to rule for the first two or 2.5 years and then Gantz for the remainder, maybe even with Netanyahu officially retiring from politics at that point. I have a hard time seeing Netanyahu agree to serve as second in command under Gantz, so I think he would retire at that point - but if he doesnt commit to retiring, I would be wary of him pulling a "stinking maneuver" at the end of his portion and dispersing the Knesset the way he did now in order to not give anyone else even a chance to possibly lead the country.

Another scenario is that the various parties come to an agreement as to reversing the dispersal and canceling the elections, but then something happens, maybe a betrayal. Maybe they reverse the dispersal, but then cant form a government. Maybe the President says Netanyahu already had his chance to form a government and failed, so now it is Gantz's turn. Gantz will most likely not be able to form a government so we would most likely end up at elections again anyway.   

Anyways, it is most unlikely to happen, so feel free to fantasize about the craziest possible scenario you can imagine.


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