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Jul 8, 2024

what should they do?

In light of the ongoing coalition crisis (which can fizz out just as easily and quickly as it can expand and intensify), here is what I think the various players should do, each from their perspective (as I understand it):

Itamar Ben Gvir: should resign and call for elections. Ben Gvir should declare himself as running for prime minister, no more being second fiddle to a party that is not as right wing as they claim to be.

Betzalel Smotritch: he has no hand to play, and he knows it. He has to just be as right wing extreme as he can and hope he doesnt get decimated in whatever happens next. He does not have the power to be proactive in this.

Moshe Gafni and Yitzchak Goldknopf: they don't have much of a hand. Quitting the coalition wont help them, but it also wont hurt them. If they have a serious enough crisis (eg yeshiva boys get drafted or arrested), they can quit. If not, they really have no reason to.

Aryeh Deri: he has a hand to play but has no real option. Bringing down the government won't really help them, but at some point, when they run out of complaints, they have to show they have some ideology behind them and not just looking for jobs. I dont think we are far off, if things keep not falling their way, but I dont think they are there just yet.

Benjamin Netanyahu: He should resign from politics, but he wont. Bring down the government, dissolve the Knesset, and call for elections, while stepping away from politics. If he does that now, his legacy is gone and destroyed and will only be remembered as having presided over the worst attack and massacre with all the failures involved, and having abandoned the hostages. So he can't do that, at least not now. He won't do that until he rebuilds his image a bit, and will need a big win for that to happen.
Netanyahu should take advantage of this current crisis, along with the other recent coalition crises, and say he has had enough (he has done this before in previous governments). He should blame the heads of all the parties for their bickering, blackmail, irresponsible behavior, and unreasonable demands. he should blame them for the impossibility of coming to a hostage deal (while stressing most of the blame is on Hamas). 
Netanyahu should declare that after elections he will move to form a unity government, not an extreme Right government. He needs to get into discussions with Gantz and Lieberman and others from the other parties (specifically the more center leaning parties) to talk about forming a government together, maybe as a rotation, though it can only work if Netanyahu offers to go second in rotation rather than first. Nobody will trust him to follow through with rotating when the time comes. Obviously specifics will depend on results of elections and which comes out the bigger party, but in general that is what he should be doing.

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  1. You wrote a lot so for NOW, I will only respond based on an October 6 world - Oct 7 changed a LOT but Oct 7 is NOT relevant to my comments below.
    Netanyahu for DECADES preferred unity gov't over coalitions with the right. In 1996, after Lieberman (then a Kahane-supporter) worked day and night to get Netanyahu elected, Netanyahu's victory speech focused on thanking Shimon Peres (i.e. for UNITY) and left out Lieberman (then on the far-right).
    Netanyahu actually prefers unity (i.e. coalitions with Ehud Barak, Tzipi Livni, Lapid) over governing from the right. There are many on the right that RESENT Netanyahu for doing so - there has been QUITE a bit of anger over the years since the price of unity is not implementing the right agenda (i.e. Netanyahu is the ultimate CENTRIST much to the right's chagrin).
    In 2018-2022, something CHANGED. What changed?
    FAKE CHARGES were filed against Netanyahu closing off this option. The illegal prosecution of these charges (e.g hiding evidence from Netanyahu's attorneys, and MUCH MUCH more) is actually one of the most CORRUPT acts in the history of the State of Israel.
    Netanyahu was charged with 'media bribery' something that is NOT in the status, something that NOBODY since has been charged with - Shai Nitzan and Mendleblitt actually MADE up a crime to push out Netanyahu.
    Based on these FAKE charges, Netanyahu was BANNED by the "center" and "soft right" politicians for being 'corrupt' and 'in legal trouble.'
    You can't have it both ways -- ban governing with Netanyahu AND complaining that Netanyahu is not willing to have unity coalitions.
    As for not following through with the 2020 rotation agreement, NOBODY mentions the Bagatz's mid-2020 refusal [during the middle of the COVID19 pandemic when unity was critical and repeated elections was a health-risk] to sign onto the fact that a charged 'alternate PM' can serve as 'alternate PM' - i.e. when presented with the opportunity for UNITY and RECONILLIATION, the Bagatz fought AGAINST, based on their activism of course.

    1. this is correct. Lawfare has really bad consequences on politics. (Democrat party should have taken note.)

  2. Garnel IronheartJuly 08, 2024 11:19 PM

    Hindsight is always flawless.
    Bibi should've resigned 2 elections ago, announcing that obviously the electorate is split, he can't win a broad-based government and that he is going to retire and allow a new generation to run Likud. Behind the scenes he should've cut a deal with the prosecutors - I quit, you drop the charges and leave me alone to travel the world and make millions giving speeches.
    But he didn't and now his legacy is gone. No one will remember his incredible pre-2023 record. They'll still pay millions to hear him give speeches though and maybe that's what really matters for him. And frankly, time blurs old wounds. Shimon Peres gave Israel its deadliest distaster ever - Oslo - and yet is remembered as a wise statesman and leader. If he can be rehabilitated, anyone can.
    There can't be a unity government - the leader of every other major centrist party has been betrayed or backstabbed by Bibi at one point or another.
    The Chareidi parties know that the next government will, short of a miracle, not include them and they will lose all their bargaining power. What's more, street riots will be dealt with by a police force that has the support of the government. They have everything to lose which is why they huff and puff but don't blow the house down.
    As for Ben Gvir, he just keeps making DL look more and more like a bunch of fascists. Is there no one who represents the community that can kick him out and lead a decent party?

    1. Ah, "fascist." The meaningless word.

    2. people with a irrational and shallow belief system that justifies violence and glorifies power


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