When Ben Gvir pulled his party out, Smotritch decided to punish them by resigning from his ministerial position, thus kicking out MK Kroizer from the Knesset, and then Smotritch would take his position back. Taking back the ministerial position would not put Kroizer back in as MK - the Norwegian Law can only be applied once per MK (per Knesset), and Smotritch would have to resign from the Knesset, which he would not do for Kroizer even if he could.. 

They ended up not playing this game because Ben Gvir wanted to keep his guy in despite not being part of the coalition. He negotiated with Smotritch and they worked out a deal by which Smotritch would not resign, thus leaving Kroizer in. Kroizer would commit to voting with the coalition. On any vote he plans to vote against the coalition he would give 48 hours notice, enabling Smotritch to decide whether or not to resign and kick Kroizer out. And additionally Almog Cohen would be left in place as he was not following Otzma decisions anyway and was voting with the coalition even when Otzma decided not to.

Games. 

Others can play games too. 

It is being reported that Minister Yitzchak Goldknopf (of UTJ) is considering resigning from his ministerial position, go back to the Knesset, then take back his ministerial position while keeping his Knesset seat. This would kick his "Norwegian MK", Yitzchak Pindrus from Degel Hatorah, out of the Knesset but Goldknopf is more concerned with getting himself more power in his fight over the Draft Law and taking back his Knesset seat will give him back his Knesset vote.

To that end, his aide, Motti Bebchik, has been checking within UTJ what the ramifications of such a move would be. Bebchik reportedly checked in With Uri Maklev to see if Goldknopf resigns and does this shtick if Maklev (from Degel) would retaliate and also resign his [deputy] ministerial position to kick out Moshe Roth (from Agudath Israel) from the Knesset being his Norwegian MK. And if they do this, Meir Porush (from Agudath Israel) might also resign to kick out his Norwegian MK Yaakov Asher (from Degel Hatorah).

And Degel has warned that if Goldknopf resigns and pulls this shtick leading to the removal of two Degel MKs, they may vote against approving him as minister when he tries to take back his ministerial position. 

Why now? what has changed? The Dati Leumi leadership have been very opposed to a deal until now, and calling support for a "responsible" deal doesnt really change anything as all along they have said they would support a deal but only a responsible one (question is always what qualifies as responsible). Now? There are not even any talks or discussions of a deal on the table. Sinwar has been incommunicado for a long time and only yesterday did they say he finally has been in touch with Qatar and is really alive. Why now? What is this letter meant to accomplish?

One option is that it is just meant as an attempt to improve their own public image. The DL community has been painted as being against any deal, maybe they dont care about the hostages, and the like. A letter in support of a deal, especially when it costs nothing as no deal is on the table, can go a long way in repainting the image of the community. See - we are in favor of a deal, we do care about the hostages.

The other option, in my mind, is that there is, perhaps, something going on behind the scenes that the public has not been made aware of. Perhaps talks, or the start of talks, and a possible deal approaching. This letter, according to my theory, is meant to start paving the way and preparing the public for a deal that might be presented soon. I would not be surprised if Netanyahu is ready to make a deal for the hostages and this letter is at his bequest (in his usual roundabout ways) to start preparing the ground. Saar recently joined the government so even if Ben Gvir would remain opposed it could still pass a vote without him. 

Just a theory, dont get your hopes up just yet, but let's see where this goes, and hopefully we will see the hostages home soon!

That being said, here is what I think should happen (not what I think will happen).

Deri has been super loyal to Netanyahu and was one of the architects of the electoral success, alongside Netanyahu, so you have to assume Netanyahu wont try to pull a fast one over Deri, and even if he wanted to Deri is shrewd enough to not be Netanyahu's pawn. UTJ and Hatzionut Hadatit were also loyal to Netanyahu but they each made trouble along the way and gave Netanyahu some heartache and worry and he had to work hard to keep them in line, so he doesn't "owe" them as much, though obviously he needs them to form his government - this just means that while he might not try to bring Shas down to size and minimize his offer to them, he will try to knock down the demands of UTJ and Hatzionut Hadatit as much as possible. He has had much greater success controlling the Dati Leumi parties in the past (not including Bennett, to a certain extent), so one has to assume his focus will be on working them over as usual.

In my opinion, Aryeh Deri needs to demand for the Finance Ministry, and take it if offered. The Finance Ministry is actually a horrible position for him to be in, but considering his campaign focusing on the economy, cost of living and all that fun stuff, this has to be his direction in the new government. Deri claimed he will fix the economy, he campaigned fabulously on that issue, he pretty much has to take the Finance Ministry. How can he possibly run back to the Ministry of Interior (the other position he is reportedly considering), important as it may be, when he has been focusing on the economy in his campaign.

Smotritch would possibly be decent in the Finance Ministry but his issue in the campaign was not the economy (not mostly at least) but Justice Minister or Defense Minister might be what he needs to take. I have a hard time believing Bibi will give him the Defense Ministry, but that is the rumor right now, but Justice might be appropriate as well.

The Religious Affairs Ministry needs to be fought over between Shas and the Dati Leumi parties as is the custom, as each wants to get jobs for their people. The difference between them is nominal, especially with the Dati Leumi sector represented now by Smotritch being more on the Chardal side, they are awfully close to Shas and UTJ on religion/state issues. So whoever gets it, policy wont be different form the other candidate, for the most part, just the identities of the people running it.

UTJ wont take anything overly significant because Degel is still not taking ministries and they mostly focus on ghelping themselves, while of course they help others along the way - so they take positions that can have more of a direct effect on their communities rather than Israel in general. They might take deputy position in the Public Transportation Ministry, in Housing (unless Aguda takes that as a full ministry), heading some committees, etc - influential positions for them but mostly not top-tier level positions in the government.