In the ongoing fight between the Likud and Yamina over coalition or opposition, Likud is now accusing Yamina of choosing to join the Opposition with Hila Yevzak.

That's funny.

Yamina might deserve to sit in the Opposition. Maybe they are demanding too much relative to the size of the party. Maybe they are fighting internally over who gets what and that is preventing them from making good decisions. It is definitely possible. The Likud claim in that regard is just as credible as the Yamina claim that the Likud is offering too little.

Yet Likud throwing out an accusation about Yamina connecting with Hila Yazbak is just too funny. It is ridiculous. Netanyahu is trying to create an image of Yamina not joining the government because suddenly they love the Arabs and want to work with them - and not just the Arabs but the most extreme among them. By doing this Netanyahu will deflect blame from himself for breaking the bloc and  not bringing Yamina in - after all, they are leftists and want to partner with the extreme Arabs. And it might curtail some of their opposition, if Netanyahu can start having people think of them as leftists.  He is trying to create an image, but it is a particularly silly one.

Politics makes strange bedfellows, and if Yamina ends up int he Opposition it will be together with the UAL and Hila Yazbak, but it will not be because Yamina wants to work with them and they suddenly have a wonderful relationship together...

As of now it looks like Yamina will be left out, or will choose to stay out, of the government coalition and will instead sit in the opposition. That might still change in the coming days, but for now it looks pretty final.

It does not bother me that Yamina might sit in the Opposition (though, as I have said previously I do not like the way Netanyahu treats them). I think it might even be a good thing.

There is no party as splintered as Yamina. The right wing Dati Leumi political party, in whatever name it has run under in the past ten years (or maybe even the past 30 years), has been made up of small factions that each has its own demands and its own interests. They seem to be able to work together until they no longer can, which is often.

Sitting in the Opposition for a little while can be good for them and give them time and opportunity to figure out and clarify their identity, who their voters are, what they want to accomplish and how they can work together and possibly even to unite the factions into one real party.

Not only can it be good for Yamina internally, but it can also be good from a political perspective. If Yamina is in the coalition, Netanyahu and his government are only opposed form the Left, and Netanyahu has shown himself as very skilled, for a long time already, in neutralizing the Left and making sure they are not a threat in any way to his rule and governance. With Yamina in the Opposition, Netanyahu will be opposed from the Right. If Yamina can stay strong and not fall into Netanyahu's political traps, they can make a lot of trouble for him, or at least bring him somewhat more to the Right. Even if you think Netanyahu is already right wing, when he has a unity government of sorts, he will have to move away from the Right end of his politics and more to the center. Yamina can possibly drag him back to the Right - something they would not be able to do from within the coalition.

Yamina in the Opposition is far from the end of the world for Yamina voters. They can turn this into an opportunity to build themselves up for the future.

Finally. After so many years of being treated like a third wheel, Yamina is standing up to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu demanded loyalty and everything else from Yamina leading up to, and after, the elections over the past year. And Yamina delivered. They might not realistically have had any other option anyway, but like Deri and Litzman and Gafni, Yamina leaders all expressed unwavering support for Netanyahu time and again.

Yet since coalitions talks began, Netanyahu has treated them like a third wheel, as he has in the past. For his Haredi partners he made sure to keep the positions they want available. The negotiations with them were so smooth that Gafni said it surprised him as being the first time they did not even have to negotiate anything. the entire agreement was signed in 7 minutes, Gafni said, and they got everything they wanted. With Yamina the negotiations have dragged on and we've heard different, and sometimes conflicting, reports about what they are being offered and what they are demanding and if Netanyahu and his people are even talking to them or just using them as a "warning" to Kachol Lavan and all the rest of the political games we regularly see. Maybe they need to be more realistic in Yamina and maybe they are asking for too much - I don't know and that's irrelevant to my point - if Netanyahu was returning the loyalty he so strongly demanded of them, he would find a way to make it work in a reaosnable way relatively quickly.

So now Yamina is responding in kind. They are saying they are not going to be so quick to sign for Netanyahu's mandate, should he need it. They are using it as a negotiating tool. If this ends up in elections again, either because the deal falls through or because the Supreme Court intervenes, Yamina might not have Netanyahu's back (even though he won't have any real opponent this time).

Now they just have to stand strong on their threats. If Netanyahu calls their bluff and they cave, we'll know nothing has changed.

Today is Naftali Bennett's day. The best thing possible just happened for him.

With Itamar Ben Gvir announcing that Otzma is not pulling out of the race the night before election day, Bennett might be able to breathe just a little easier. While Otzma staying in the race means some right wing votes get wasted, it also means that the focus of Netanyahu's last minute "gevalt" campaign will likely be focused this time on Otzma voters and not on Bennett's voters.

Bennett and Yamina probably gain the most form Otzma staying int he race, even though it might hurt the right wing bloc a little bit

As much as I can feel bad for anybody, any party, in the political sphere, right now I feel bad for Yamina.

Yamina is, once again, under attack from the Likud. That is already standard fare. No matter how loyal they are to the Likud and Netanyahu (perhaps due to not having any other realistic option, but still), Netanyahu treats them like dirt, in addition to trying to poach their voters election after election. And they continue expressing support for Netanyahu - again, perhaps for lack of options, but still, they just take it form him, time after time with little to no serious response.

That has been standard fare for years and would not deserve  post on its own.

Now, and it began in the last election but has increased now, they have been under attack from other groups and parties within the "right bloc".

There are groups of DL natural voters that don't like what the RZ party has become, and they have supported other parties in recent elections and continue to publicly consider doing so again. That is their right and also, on its own, not really all that bothersome to me.

Now, adding to the above, UTJ has opened to Dati Leumi campaign headquarters through which they will officially run all operations of their campaign directed to the Dati Leumi public, mostly probably towards the Chardal subset.

Again, no party owns the rights to any voter and all parties can campaign to anyone and everyone and try to earn their votes, though they all complain when it is done to them, but it is still not common to openly target the natural base of another party, especially within the same bloc of parties.

So putting all the above together, and having Yamina coming under attack from all sides, both from the other side of the aisle and from their own side of the aisle, I kind of feel bad for them. Yes, even though I have never voted for them and don't see myself voting for them in the future, I feel bad for them for the way they are being treated, especially by their own partners.

People are very angry at the new united party of the right wing religious sector, though I am not sure I understand what happened that was so bad.

Habayit Hayehudi led by Rav Rafi Peretz made a deal with Otzma Yehudit to run together. Smotritch and Ichud Leumi then went to Bennett and Yamina to try to make a deal to run together, and they figured it out. So, there were then two parties, each made up of a union of two parties, and all was good. It seemed like both would easily pass the threshold and no votes would be wasted.

Somehow that was not good enough and people were pushing the two to unite, putting all four together. I am not sure why this was necessary. Bennett refused to consider bringing Otzma Yehudit into his party, so he began talking to Peretz but only about Habayit Hayehudi joining Yamina, leaving Otzma behind. Other people got involved and put a lot of pressure on Peretz, and int he end he decided to make a deal with Bennett, joining Habayit Hayehudi with Yamina, leaving tzma out. So now there is one party made up of 3 parties together, and another party by itself that likely does not have enough to pass the threshold on its own.

This entire exercise seems like a bad idea to me, but the pressure was on front he start and that's what the parties decided the people wanted.

So now many are upset at Peretz for going back on his word and abandoning his deal with Otzma. I don't see it as such a big deal, sorry as it is to have happened, but many are saying this is the end of Peretz's political career and he can no longer be trusted. Others are upset at Bennett, though I have no idea for what. He did not do anything except join with other parties to ensure votes are not wasted. Bennett did not break any deals, Peretz did.

If anybody can explain to me what each party did wrong that was so bad, so bad that it makes these parties not worth voting for, I would appreciate it.

There is an interesting battle going on, and it is centered on the Ministry for Religious Affairs.

Despite the fact that the government has only been a caretaker government for nearly a year, with no coalition and already two rounds of elections behind us with a third on the way, political parties are making their demands for what ministries they expect to receive authority over in a future government, as a condition for entering a coalition, and others are fighting about what ministries to be given now, even in just a temporary capacity..

The most interesting of these is the "New Right", Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked. Both have made statements that they will demand as a condition for entry into a future coalition both the Ministry of Religious Affairs (Bennett said he would appoint a professional appointment to this position rather than a political appointment), and the election of a Zionist rabbi to the Chief Rabbinate.

Shas, currently in control of this ministry and having been in control of this ministry for many years in recent history, has responded with attacks on Bennett. They scoff at the size of his party wondering why he thinks such a small party should get it. They scoff at Bennett, the current Defense Minister, asking if he is willing to trade the Defense Ministry for the Religious Affairs Ministry. They attack him for being responsible for the elections by not uniting with other parties and not passing the threshold thus wasting many right wing votes. They attack Bennett for not treating the ministry properly when he did control it. Basically, Shas is fighting back saying they want to keep this ministry and Bennett can't/shan't take it away from them.

On the one hand, the fight is silly, especially in context of the current difficulty in forming a government. Maybe they need to focus on campaigning, bringing in votes, uniting with other parties to ensure they pass the threshold, and whatever else is part of an election campaign. Talking about future coalitions and jobs is a bit premature at this point.

On the other hand, it excites the electorate. people love some good political sparring. people love some good fighting, some good arguing. This wakes everyone else up. Maybe he deserves it, maybe not. Maybe Shas deserves it, maybe not. That does not matter. This type of a fight can be good to wake people up and excite them and get things moving. I would not be surprised if it was even coordinated between the two parties, as it is really good for both of them.

I am not even sure why the Yamina party would even want the position, besides for just to create the excitement of a fight. They talk about being religious "lite" and more right of a party than religious, so if they are going to remain small and only deserve one or two ministries, it seems that Religious Affairs would not be their focus.

This is similar to the Likud primary. Saar is great for putting his neck on the line against Bibi, but nobody expects him to even get close to winning. The primary seems like a big waste of time and resources, but it is great for the Likud electorate. This is a good energizer for them and will give them momentum into the campaign for the general elections.

Otzma Yehudit and Zehut, especially Zehut (Moshe Feiglin) are upset that Shaked and Bennett came to a final agreement for a merger with the United Right and left them out int he cold. Otzma Yehudit is saying "forget it, we will go with NOAM now", and Zehut is saying they will run alone. And they are laying the blame on Ayelet Shaked for their running alone, and for any eventual right-wing votes that will be wasted as a result.

Personally I see no problem with her first working on the deal with the main party, United Right, and only going to the smaller parties after. A deal with Feiglin in advance could have complicated negotiations with the United Right and that deal was far more important, to Shaked, to Bennett, to Smotritch, to Peretz and to the Right, than a deal with Feiglin or Ben Gvir.

And Shaked has said that now that this deal has been finalized, she will spend the coming days working on bringing in Zehut and Otzma. So another deal may, or may not, work out anyway, but she did the right thing by moving first to work out a deal with Peretz and Smotritch.. 

It looks like the various religious parties don't know what to do with all the power they have received with their mandates in the recent election.

UTJ has hit a historical high number of mandates, and they are publicly making demands of number of jobs along with levels of authority that they never before had and that somewhat outweigh their actual influence, while also making demands in the realm of religion and state that, at least for now, Netanyahu is not willing to concede on. With the jobs thye are trying to pull some shtick by asking for ministries in the role of deputy minister but only with no minister above them, meaning it wont count towards the number of ministers Netanyahu appoints. They expect this to help them get all these positions, despite the positions demanded being leading ministries that, some of which, Netanyahu wanted or needed to offer to others.
Then there is also the infighting - for example, after they broke off coalition negotiations because of the permits given for Eurovision, some of the MKs told "the real story" with one saying that Degel and Aguda are fighting about, another saying it was a coordinated move and was planned in advance, and another saying negotiations cannot happen under such terms.

Shas is also demanding additional jobs and authorities. They are pulling their own shtick by saying some ministries aren't important on their own so should be bundled with others they would get anyway. They do seem to be managing their negotiations better and quieter overall, but every now and again you can see they are fighting and in conflict with UTJ about this or that ministerial demand.

And now Ichud Hayemin is also fighting. They have been demanding top ministries, despite their small size. They don't like what Netanyahu offered until now. They are backstabbing each other, because there are not enough positions to go around, so everyone suspects the other is cutting him out.

They can talk all they want about together being 22 seats, or together being 16 seats, or the third largest faction or whatever. They are each still 8 seats, and 5 for Ichud Hayemin. They are not big parties, but they are all drunk with power thinking they can run the country because they hold the keys to the office. Netanyahu has no coalition without each one of them, so at the end of the day he will surely give in to many of the demands and give them disproportionate power, but the risk is there that they wont work it out and new elections will be caused. They would be good to shake off the drunkeness a bit and make more realistic demands and stop fighting with each other.

Hayemin Hechadash, Th New Right, founders, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, have made another selection for a candidate for the party list. And it is a winner. A big move.

If you though Caroline Glick was a splashy appointment, Shirley Pinto might be even bigger. The selection of Shirley Pinto is historic, as it is the first time a deaf person will be competing for a Knesset seat.

Pinto is an activist for the rights of deaf people, and for others with disabilities as well, in Israel.
source: Israel Hayom

Naftali Bennett is, so far, being heavily outnumbered by women in this new party.

Without knowing anything about her beyond the little I read, this looks like a great selection. A woman, young, someone who fights for the disabled, as she herself is deaf... this is a home run selection. Pinto will provide a good reason for a lot of people to vote for this party...

what do you think - is this a good candidate or a bad appointment? She definitely gives them a strong right wing appearance, but she's also a little bit overboard in the eyes of many.. does this hurt them or help them?

We did not think we would get 20 mandates in the first polls [since forming the new party], we are working towards double-digits of mandates.. The next prime minister will be Benjamin Netanyahu and we definitely want to be central partners in his government... I expect that this will be Netanyahu's last term as prime minister, he is not young anymore and he has many investigations open on him..

  -- Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked

It is too ealry to have an opinion about the new party formed by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked and make assumptions as to how well they will do in the upcoming elections, but here are my initial thoughts.

As I have said before, considering Naftali Bennett has aspirations to be prime minister, leaving Habayit Hayehudi is the right move. He has no chance of becoming prime minister while in the Habayit Hayehudi party. It is too sectorial a party and cannot move into that position. They got upset at him when he brought Eli Ohana in to the party before the previous election. There is no way they can move themselves into being a national party rather than a sectorial one. Besides for that, Habayit Hayehudi just does not have the gravitas to get grow large enough to be in such a position - they always lose out to the Likud, as many of their supporters can go either way - and they don't make the effort to do so either. So, Bennett had no chance of fulfilling his aspirations as long as he stayed in Habayit Hayehudi.

Can he do it from this new party- HaYemin Hechadash - the New Right? I don't know. I don't know what it is or what they will be and what kind of support they will get, though my assumption is that he will not be able to and this will just be another small right wing splinter party.

What should he have done? Perhaps he should have rejoined the Likud and tried to take a leadership position there. What he really should have done is place Ayelet Shaked as #1 in the new party. She is far more popular than he. That does not really help him, but he already may never get there with his reputation, and with some other popular politicians moving into position , so helping his better-liked protege get there might be the best he can hope for.