Mar 4, 2018

Litzman's poker face

PM Netanyahu has yet to resolve the crisis in government regarding the budget bill and the draft law proposed by the Haredi parties.

We are at the point where MKs Gafni and [Deputy Minister] Litzman are again today threatening to dissolve the government over this and go to elections.

Litzman bought UTJ some credibility when he recently resigned over the issue of the working on the train lines on Shabbos. If Netanyahu, or Kahlon or Lieberman or other LIkud people, wants to avoid elections, he won't try to call Litzman's bluff, because now everyone knows Litzman is willing to go all the way. His poker face got much better after that issue.

That being said, Netanyahu sees the most recent polls and the recent trends in the polls that show him and the Likud just increasing in size and might very well see this as an opportune time to call elections. Not from the perspective of calling Litzman's bluff, but from the perspective of benefitting himself and the Likud. He also might not take the other threats very well, heard from both Gafni and Litzman, about anybody being able to form a coalition and possibly joining with Avi Gabay after any such elections. Netanyahu has liked the loyalty of the Haredi parties until now that backed him completely. For them to suddenly be talking about supporting Gabbay instead must be infuriating to netanyahu.

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  1. I am still not sure how Litzman earned credibility on this one. He quit to protest trains on Shabbat. As a result he ended up in the exact same job he had before with the job title altered to fit his original preference.

    As far I as I know, nothing has changed in regards to work being since before the Haredi parties decided to be offended by it. I do know that I heard the train yesterday afternoon somewhere between 3:00 and 4:00. That train runs directly across the street from a Shas MK (David Azoulay?)house.

  2. Wasn't maintenance of the "status quo" part of the coalition agreement? And wouldn't removal of the haredi draft obligation change the status quo?

  3. changes to the status quo are always ok when they are in favor of the haredi community


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