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Jul 25, 2018

Lapid, the Rental

PM Netanyahu is frustrated. He is specifically frustrated with the Haredi parties he has partnered with in government. After 3+ years of working pretty well together and getting a lot done, Netanyahu now sounds like he did shortly before he fired Yair Lapid from the Finance Minister position in the revious government.

Netanyahu is reported to be expressing his frustration. He complains that he is sick of having to deal with these situations that they come to agreements in private meetings behind closed doors, but as soon as the topics make it into the news the Haredi parties reverse their decisions. As well, they regularly threaten to topple the government, creating crises over issues that had already been resolved in private. And, the various Haredi factions and parties are now splintered and no longer present him one opinion or demand but each comes with a different list, sometimes conflicting, of demands. Netanyahu said he is sick of dealing with putting out all these fires created by the Haredi parties.

Will he fire them, as he did to Lapid over similar frustrations, and go to elections? I don't know. There is still a difference, as Netanyahu saw Lapid as someone looking to become Prime Minister in his place while the Haredi parties are frustrating but they are not looking to overthrow Netanyahu himself.

The Haredi media online (Behadrei, Kol Hazman) is saying that Netanyahu is considering replacing the Haredi parties with Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid. I don't know if he is really threatening that or if whoever in the media is concerned about the situation is worried that it might happen. Either way, I think Netanyahu would prefer elections. Right now he is in a position of strength with he and the Likud polling very strongly, even if not as strong as a few weeks ago. Bringing Yesh Atid into the government instead of the Haredi parties, if they would even agree, would anger the Haredim and make a potential future government with them difficult to put together. As well, for Netanyahu it would mean bringing someone he really doesn't like back into the government. The Likud and Yesh Atid have been sparring throughout the government. While "that is politics", it has gotten kind of nasty and it is difficult to see them getting over that so quickly to come to a deal now, though I guess in politics anything can happen. From Yair Lapid's perspective, I would expect him to say no as he should not want to be treated as a rental.

As a rental? In baseball the term has become popular with teams trading for a player to fill a need even if knowing that the player will only be with them for a couple of months until the end of the season before going to free agency. That player is essentially a rental. They pay a high price looking for a high return in a short period of time.

In such a situation, Lapid would basically be a rental, and it would be likely Netanyahu would not invite him back into the next government, just as the rental player then goes to free agency and joins a different team. The difference being that in baseball the rental player is doing this by choice and preference, as it is his opportunity to make a lot of money, while with Lapid it would likely be being used as a wet rag to be disposed of as soon as his usefulness is over.

Lapid is always a wildcard. If I were Lapid I would not agree to this, if offered. However, Lapid recently voted for the Opposition ranks for a government bill (the Draft Law, specifically), thus propping up the government that could have been toppled at that time with the Haredi parties voting against. Lapid explained that this is a law they believe in and is very similar to the law they themselves pushed when in government, and they want to vote for good laws , even if it means missing the opportunity to take down the government. Lapid could, if offered, do something similar here saying that even if it is just short term it is an opportunity to take the Haredim out of the government and replace them and possibly reverse some of the laws hey instituted in the past 3+ years.

I don't know if Netanyahu will make such an offer of if Lapid will be ok being a rental, but it looks like we are headed for some interesting times...






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