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Oct 23, 2019

Amber Alert for Israeli Butter Successful

A Guest Post by Dr Harold Goldmeier

Amber Alert for Israeli Butter Successful

Dr. Harold Goldmeier is Manager of an investment fund, a university teacher, business consultant, speaker and writer for many sites and newspapers. He is a graduate of Harvard and was a Research and Teaching Fellow.  You can read more about this subject at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4292043-wh-group-ltd-leading-investors-profits-pork-wars or write  Harold.goldmeier@gmail.com

Israel’s butter and ingredients to make butter are on Amber Alert for almost a year. I believe they are largely being exported to China and elsewhere including Walmart. In part, Israel is contributing to China’s food security program thus stabilization. Tnuva might be saving China from threats to its authoritarian leadership by exporting dairy products.

Butter made in Israel is missing from supermarket shelves for nearly a year. It is a surprising turn of events since Tnuva is the largest dairy food manufacturer in Israel. Butter and cottage cheese are the company’s momma staples. Tnuva sales account for 70% of the country's dairy market. The Israel Antitrust Authority once labeled Tnuva a monopoly. 

State-owned China’s Bright Foods owns a controlling interest in Tnuva. The behemoth of food security has the power and authority to order Tnuva management to ship products wherever. The 2014 deal was an early warning sign from the Netanyahu government fledgling policy of promoting the wholesale sale of Israeli companies to foreign investors without demands for job protection for Israel’s workforce for four reasons. 

First, government coffers are filled faster this way because of the huge taxes collected on big deals. Israel’s largest export has become its businesses relabeled for public relations purposes as investments. 

Second, China’s investments and growing trade cement diplomatic relations in the face of hostility to Israel and undermines the BDS movement. 

Third, the investments in Israel demonstrate Netanyahu’s commitment to building solid foreign relations in addition to the U. S. and Europe. 

Four, Chinese workers and scientists have reasons to visit Israel and become boots on the ground witnessing the magical start-up nation and carrying home the message. Missing butter, however, in addition to lost jobs, maybe a side-effect of this foreign investment government policy. China’s self-interests in Israel are threefold.

China enjoys a growing middle class. They buy cars. They eat more meat and dairy abandoning their vegetarian diet as living standards rise. China’s dairy products production is sluggish, so the country imports $10B a year including imports of milk powder, cheese, butterfat, whey products, lactose and more. China’s imports of U. S. dairy products fell dramatically in the heat of the tariff war. China does not seem too bothered because its needs are being met by imports from other countries filling the void. China also imports Israeli know-how, technology, and equipment like robotic milking systems for building its dairy farming enterprises. If you want kosher butter go to China. 

President Donald Trump is appropriately using tariffs on imported goods from China to change its government’s collaboration in manifestly bad business behavior. China is accused of stealing intellectual property and takes pride in selling “knock-off” goods at cheap prices. It devalues its money to ensure cheap exports keep flowing. But the impact of tariffs is threatening China’s economic and social stability. 

A hallmark of China communist authoritarian rule is it operates on a planned economy. China has been bracing for years for the arousal concordance of other governments’ antipathy for the pesthouse business practices. Moreover, though no one anticipates a regime change from Hong Kong unrest or the deteriorating mainland economy, the Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies that I got to know when I was a Research and Teaching Fellow, published a book review in February claiming the Chinese government has a tight grip on things but “amid surging protests.” Nothing ensures peace like a government that can feed its people and fulfills the growing demands of the middle class.

In retaliation, China announced tariffs on a slew of U.S. goods. Soybeans, dairy products, and hogs are especially hard-hit. The U. S. dairy exports by volume to China fell 43% in the past year. China is sourcing these from Europe, South America, New Zealand, and Israel. 

For example, China turned to New Zealand farmers to supplement the growing middle class’s demand for more dairy products. In 2019, China’s Yili dairy company bought New Zealand’s second-largest dairy cooperative, Westland, for an estimated NZ$246M (US$165+M). The largest NZ dairy company, Fonterra, continues being a preferred supplier to China. European Union butter exports to China in 2019 are up 13%.; cheese exports to China are up 20%, more than to any other single destination. 

Moreover, China’s Bright Food Group owns the controlling interest in Israel’s Tnuva Food Industries. Tnuva appears to have stopped manufacturing butter for the Israeli market claiming it gains greater revenue preferring to export butter selling at higher prices. Efforts to determine the destination of butter/dairy exports go unanswered. The longest-running absence of domestic-made butter from supermarket shelves in Israel cannot be a coincidence in timing to China’s sourcing alternative dairy. 

But things do not always go as planned. In September 2019, the Chinese government seemed worried enough to change policy and loosen or eliminate (depending on how you translate the term from Chinese) the tariffs on U.S. soybeans and pork/meat imports as a way of easing internal pressures and mitigating Hong Kong protests from spreading to the mainland even though the issues are different. Soybean and hog farmers are President Trump’s backbone voters and much is written about them in particular including Trump subsidies (90%) are allocated to states where they have political sway.

So why is a nice, kosher keeping boy writing about pork? Because pork is a staple of the Chinese diet. Soybean meal is a staple of China’s hogs. Unrest is growing among the Chinese from economic woes coupled with stress on the hog herds. The pressure is forcing the government to cut the Gordian Knot by announcing days ago that tariffs on U.S. soybeans and pork are being rescinded or will not be raised again (it depends on how you translate Chinese).

Pork and meat are not simply staples but obsessions in modern China. Meat and pork consumption are growing among China’s growing middle class. Pork by-products are widely used in Chinese cooking for shortening, flavorings, main dishes, and sausages. Pork is the most popular dish on Chinese recipe shows. And, 2019 is the Chinese New Year of the Pig.

Pork prices skyrocketed from an epidemic of African Swine Fever in China. Now into a second year, the Fever is responsible for the destruction of half the world’s hog population. China’s herd was decimated by the loss of some 300M. Herd sites are contaminated sometimes for three years. Adding to the strain are tariffs nearing 62% on pigs. Soybeans and soy meal imports to feed the pigs were drastically reduced by the trade war. 

The Chinese government’s announcement is expected to lead to renewed imports of American pigs and soybeans and comes none too soon for both countries. Herds are falling in numbers in America. The U. S. government is subsidizing soybean farmers. In China, one city is capping prices and rationing pork. Pork is now a luxury item. 

And in Israel, butter is a luxury item. Is cottage cheese next?

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  1. You write
    "Tnuva appears to have stopped manufacturing butter for the Israeli market claiming it gains greater revenue preferring to export butter selling at higher prices. Efforts to determine the destination of butter/dairy exports go unanswered. The longest-running absence of domestic-made butter from supermarket shelves in Israel cannot be a coincidence in timing to China’s sourcing alternative dairy. "

    What evidence do you have that the cause of the butter shortage is that tnuva is shipping butter to China?

    1. My conclusion is a fresh look at the situation in a nonempirical way with Tnuva and the government not releasing any sustainable information or data. But I don't believe in coincidences rather patterns of actions.

    2. No, usually things are coincidences.

      And here's it's even less so: In hot weather, cows produce less milkfat.

  2. This well sourced article seems to say there is a very different reason for the butter shortage

  3. I read the Globes article to confirm my suspicions and claims, nothing more or less. I agree the shortage will continue with China scrambling to replace US imports with those of other countries like Israel, NZ, etc where China is gobbling (pun intended) up markets. Thank you.

  4. You are welcome to create and believe in conspiracy theories.
    But if you do happen to find any butter can you let me know. I'm a bit short.


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