Jul 19, 2020

time to shut down the homes...

According to the latest statistics published by the Ministry of Health and the Knesset Corona Committee, in the past week 7998 Israelis have contracted CoronaVirus.

The Ministry has been able to trace back the sources for, so far, about 64% of those infected:
1)56.9% no determination where they got it from (largely due to lack of manpower to do the tracing)
2)Of the 43.5% which were able to be traced:
67% - got it at home.
9.5% - at an educational institution.
5.6% - at an event - wedding, bar mitzvah, etc.
4.8% - at a house of worship, mikva, yeshiva
4% - during recreation (including restaurants)
2.2% - at work
1.3% - in nursing homes
1.2% - malls/stores
1.1% - at a hospital or medical clinic
1.1% - at a sports facility
0.6% - public transportation
0.5% - outside
0.5% - in the IDF
0.3% - social meeting
0.2% - at a pool or the beach
(breakdown in English taken from Dov Lipman's FB post)


So, 67% of thos einfected caught it at home, and 0.2% caught it at the beach. instead of trying to shut down the beaches, they should shut down all homes and tell everyone to go sleep on the beaches or at the campgrounds. Tell people to spend more time during the day on the bus than at home. Go do some sports and hang out for a bit in the mall. Have dinner ta a wedding and go to shul.

SHUT DOWN THE HOMES!



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4 comments:

  1. People at the beach only a small amount of the time 1% or 2%. If they spend more time there more will get infected there.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So, this is a classic, but rather silly misuse of data... Here's an example. Ten people live in a house. They take extraordinary precautions, don't go out, wear masks at all times, practice excellent hygiene, hand washing, social distancing, etc.

    One member of the household gets bored and goes to a party - on the beach, and gets infected. That person goes back home and infects the rest of the household.

    So, a crude look at the statistics shows that one person caught the virus at the beach and 90% of the others in the house caught it at home.

    That's why that compilation of numbers is meaningless. It's how you stop the spread... How you stop that one person who will infect tens of others

    ReplyDelete
  3. if you remove homes as a place of exposure, since that's just an extension of the original exposure, you get the following breakdown of danger zones:

    29% at an educational institution.
    17% at an event - wedding, bar mitzvah, etc.
    15% at a house of worship, mikva, yeshiva
    12% during recreation (including restaurants)
    7% at work
    4% in nursing homes
    4% malls/stores
    3% at a hospital or medical clinic
    3% at a sports facility
    2% public transportation
    2% outside
    2% in the IDF
    1% social meeting
    1% at a pool or the beach

    ReplyDelete
  4. The data here is for a week, and missing data about over half the people, so it is basically, completely useless.
    Obviously the virus doesn't start at the home...it comes from somewhere else, so to say "most people get it at home", is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

    ReplyDelete

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