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May 19, 2024
Smotritch's bravado
Minister Smotritch called a press conference today to be held up north to discuss the deteriorating situation on the northern border.
Let's not forget that some people who are serving in the current government, even as senior members, regularly forget that fact - that they are senior members of the government - and go to protests against the government, hold press conferences against government policy and make statements criticizing the government they themselves serve in.
So Smotritch said we need to hit Lebanon hard, let them know we are serious, and take control of an area in Southern Lebanon and use it as a security strip to guarantee the security of the people of Israel.
The fact that we are in a war on the northern border but only playing a passive role in it is known to every Israeli and there seems to be a consensus to the fact that this needs to change. Israel cannot continue absorbing the attacks up north while tens of thousands of people remain evacuated from their homes with no end in sight. I wouldnt say war is necessary or war is imminent - we are already in a war, we just arent fighting our side of it yet.
The interesting thing about Smotritch's statement is that he wants to send us back to the 80s and 90s taking a security zone in south Lebanon to keep Israelis safe. I dont know if he thinks he can do things differently now but back then Lebanon, with the security zone, was a very dangerous place for Israelis, with soldiers killed far too frequently, and the northern border never quiet. Israelis were so fed up of it that the consensus consistently grew that Israel needed to leave Lebanon, until it did (perhaps too hastily). Do we really want to go back to that situation?
Regardless of that though, once must really admire Smotritch's confidence and bravado. Back in the day we fought against 3 countries and defeated them in six days. The War of Independence against 6 countries took 7 months. The Yom Kippur War, which started off pretty lousy, took 3 weeks to beat two countries. And we are in a war now against a terrorist group from a pathetic little piece of land and while we have wreaked destruction on Gaza, none of the stated goals have yet to be accomplished. And Smotritch is itching to go to war (a necessary war that has been forced upon us) in Lebanon at the same time...
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Labels:
Betzalel Smotritch,
hezbollah,
lebanon
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The comparisons to prior wars is not workable.
ReplyDeleteIn all prior major wars, Israel fought on mostly open land against conventional armies. Even the invasion of Lebanon in 1982 was fought over open territory against a disorganized terrorist force.
Lebanon today is different. Hezbollah is a conventional army just lacking an air force. It has an extensive tunnel structure. It is more integrated into the civilian population than the PLO ever was. The only way for a quick Israeli advance would involve a large number of civilian casualties and we see how our "allies" respond to that, even when its the Arabs' fault.
And then there's the matter of post-invasion occupation. If Ehud Barak had been smart (spoiler: he wasn't), he'd have armed the SLA to the teeth and provided it with air support following the withdrawal. Now Israel has no allies to assist it over rough and mountainous terrain full of hidden bases and tunnels.
Hezbollah is the main show. The government is correct to finish up in Gaza first.
maskim
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