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Oct 31, 2012

Tzippi Livni's Broad Range Of Political Options

I don't pay attention to polls, especially this early in an election season. They are wildly inaccurate even in the best of times, let alone now when the various parties are only just starting to campaign. Despite that, every now and then some interesting point shows up in the information.

Someone floated a suggestion that Moshe Kachlon should open his own political party focusing on social issues and run in the upcoming elections. Immediately the pollsters went out to see how much strength such a party would garner.

Now, I heard Moshe Kachlon on the radio saying he has no idea where that idea came from, he is not involved in it, he has committed to supporting the Likud, just a few days ago he directed the Likud convention to discuss and decide on the unified list with Yisrael Beiteinu, and that he is not opening a new party.

Despite his denial, rumors persist and the polls are the polls. It turns out that at this point, the polls predict that if Kachlon would open a party and run, he would win 20 mandates. Very nice.

(side not... I think if Kachlon chose to run a new party, he would likely seriously hurt the Likud. One point I add is that those talking about such a poll keep repeating that Kachlon would get 20 seats if he formed a centrist party. I don't know why they assume it would automatically be centrist. Moshe Kachlon is generally, on security and Land of Israel issues, considered to be on the Right side of the Likud, not closer to the Center..)

The interesting thing is what I heard on the radio this morning. The pollsters have taken it further and have new information for us. If Kachlon would open this party, it would get 20 mandates. if he would add Tzippi Livni to his list, they would get 26 mandates!

Tzippi Livni is like the Lebron James of Israeli politics. She is [considered] a superstar with no home. the pollsters have placed her with the Labor party, with Ehud Olmert in a new party, with Yair Lapid, with Ehud Olmert in Kadima, a new centrist party of her own, and now with Moshe Kachlon's potential party. The only arty I havent seen her associated with [yet] is Likud Beiteinu. I'd like to see polls showing what would happen if she went back that way.

It seems that Tzippi Livni has no ideals or path of her own and can pretty much fit in anywhere...

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  1. To quote Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles. And if you don't like them, well, I have others."

  2. Considering how many seats have been predicted for all sorts of parties that exist or just in theory, I'd guess that the Knesset has at least 400 members...

    1. I was thinking it was closer to 500 which is the same point. A poll that doesn't break down all of the parties is pretty meaningless. My favourite was the one I saw today where some guy thinks Likud-Bateynu will win 50 seats. It sounded like it was just based on some guys gut feeling and knowledge that 63% of statistics are made up on the spot.


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