I saw a fresh poll this morning that Kadima will, as of today, garner 37 seats. Note that 2 days ago they were as high as 42 seats. It will be a slow slide down, but Ehud Olmert does not have the skills nor popularity and charisma that Ariel Sharon had. There is no way he can maintain the support for Kadima at the same level as Ariel Sharon would have.
The only problem is that as long as Ariel Sharon stays in the picture on forefront of people's consciousness, Kadima will retain a lot of Sharon's supporters, simply as a pity vote.. If he leaves the picture, the hemorrhaging of Kadima will happen at a much faster pace..