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Dec 25, 2007

what would happen if we had nuclear war with Iran....


In today's newspaper there was a report of a study some organization had done (I no longer have a copy of the paper and I do not remember the name of the organization that conducted the study) regarding the forecast of what would happen in the event of nuclear war in the Middle East.

The study came to the conclusion that Israel, if attacked by Iran and Syria, would suffer tremendously with great losses. We would lose, the study estimated, about 800,000 people from direct nuclear hits, plus more from fallout and other damage. The center of losses would be focused in the major cities of Haifa, Tel Aviv and Ashdod.

On the other hand, the study continued, Iran would suffer much greater losses. The study concluded that we would wipe Iran out completely.

The study is based on the idea that Iran would be in possession of up to 50 fairly small nuclear warheads with which to attack Israel. Israel, on the other hand, would have up to an arsenal of over 200 nuclear warheads of the larger variety of over 1 megaton each, with which to attack Iran.

I hope that the balance is even more in our favor and the report is being overly cautious. I am just curious how they came to these estimates considering Israel has never admitted to having nuclear weapons and how many we have even if we do. As well, why do they assume Iran would only have small warheads available and why only up to 50?

It was kind of funny to see the maps in the paper depicting the expected attacks and ranges. Our little Israel was placed next to Iran which is much bigger.
The map of Israel showed nuclear hits in the three main cities (other than Jerusalem - I am not sure why they would not strike Jerusalem. I guess because of the Arab population there and maybe because of the Temple Mount). They had these squiggly lines showing how far around the cities would be affected.
The map of Iran showed a nuclear hit only on Tehran which is in northern Iran. Yet the squiggly lines were depicted as destroying the whole rest of the country, not just the immediate area around the hit (as it did by Israel). If Israel hits Tehran and can destroy the whole country from Tehran, that means the countries to the north (Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and others) might be in danger as well. I guess that is what they mean when they say "Woe to the wicked, and woe to his neighbor".

Again, I hope, for my sake, the people doing the study were not being overly optimistic but realistic, but the contrast seems extreme.

I hope it never comes to this point and we never have to find out how accurate the report was....

4 comments:

  1. The article I read (here) said that there are many cities on Israel's "hit list", and that by hitting these population centers, tens of millions of Iranians would perish.

    I think that not hitting Jeruslaem has more to do with the holy sites than with the Muslim population, since Haifa is also on Iran's "hit list" according to the study.

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  2. I read the article in Yisrael HaYom. I do not remember the details from the article which cities are targets, but in the map it only showed Tehran as being hit... The rest of Iran was covered with squiggly lines...

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  3. Just thinking about this is very sobering. Also I always wonder what exactly these studies mean when they say "survive". Survive like the people in Chernobyl have who have been suffering terrible ramifications ever since? Let us hope it never comes to this.

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  4. i read this article in jpost. very depressing. "only" 800,000 israeli casualties? the fact that iran would be wiped off the map isn't much consolation. also ditto to mizellie.

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