Dec 1, 2019
Haredi draft numbers declined, despite Lapid not being in government
Haaretz is reporting the the drafting of Haredi young men into the IDF dropped by 20% in 2018.
The article itself online is behind a paywall so here is an image of it that was posted online:
I would note that the article says this is the first time the number has dropped since the IDF started opening special Haredi units in 2007. I would also note that this is notable because many leaders of the Haredi community have said, and the general Haredi community has taken that as writ - I too believed it only based on what they said - that when Lapid was a minister in the government (2013-2015?) the numbers dropped because of him - because Lapid fought against the Haredi community even though he was couching his words in terms that made some people think he was trying to help the Haredi community - it generated a reaction among Haredim and they realized what was really going on and basically circled the wagons and reacted by drafting less, among other things.
So, first of all, that seems to be not true. I never knew that before, but if the numbers presented by Haaretz here are correct, the numbers never dropped until 2018.
And second of all, even if the Haaretz numbers are skewed and not accurate, the claim was always that it was because of Lapid that Haredi young men stopped drafting and caused a decline in the numbers. Now that the numbers dropped in 2018, with no Lapid in sight, with the Haredi parties full members of the government, with probably the most Haredi-friendly government in history, the numbers of Haredi young men drafting has dropped. So the claim of Lapid being at fault was likely almost always disingenuous and a deflection.
I do not know the reason for the decline in the draft percentage. The article doesn't say. There can be a number of causes and influences and it is probably not because of one specific reason, but it seems likely to me now that the reason for the previous decline, if it even happened, was probably not true either.
The article itself online is behind a paywall so here is an image of it that was posted online:
I would note that the article says this is the first time the number has dropped since the IDF started opening special Haredi units in 2007. I would also note that this is notable because many leaders of the Haredi community have said, and the general Haredi community has taken that as writ - I too believed it only based on what they said - that when Lapid was a minister in the government (2013-2015?) the numbers dropped because of him - because Lapid fought against the Haredi community even though he was couching his words in terms that made some people think he was trying to help the Haredi community - it generated a reaction among Haredim and they realized what was really going on and basically circled the wagons and reacted by drafting less, among other things.
So, first of all, that seems to be not true. I never knew that before, but if the numbers presented by Haaretz here are correct, the numbers never dropped until 2018.
And second of all, even if the Haaretz numbers are skewed and not accurate, the claim was always that it was because of Lapid that Haredi young men stopped drafting and caused a decline in the numbers. Now that the numbers dropped in 2018, with no Lapid in sight, with the Haredi parties full members of the government, with probably the most Haredi-friendly government in history, the numbers of Haredi young men drafting has dropped. So the claim of Lapid being at fault was likely almost always disingenuous and a deflection.
I do not know the reason for the decline in the draft percentage. The article doesn't say. There can be a number of causes and influences and it is probably not because of one specific reason, but it seems likely to me now that the reason for the previous decline, if it even happened, was probably not true either.
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Not sure is your comment is fair. Although Lapid has not been part of the government over the past 2 years, the Haredi draft has been a central component of coalition discussions, and is what brought down the last Knesset. So if the decrease in draft in 2015 was caused by a pushback against Lapid, the further decrease in the past 2 years could equally be a pushback against Liberman and the coalition negotiations.
ReplyDeleteas someone active in the nachal charedi, i can explain this to you very simply. as a result of lapid's agitation, the charedi draft dropped significantly. to make up for the numbers, the army began to draft secular youth in to the nachal charedi, so that the dramatic drop in charedim serving was not that obvious from the official statistics. (BTW there was a similar affect on charedi geared higher education). this i know firsthand as someone working in the trenches.
ReplyDeletewhat happened now is most likely (this part is informed speculation) that the army stopped drafting secular youth in to the nachal charedi, leading the statistics to more accurately reflect the reality. why the sudden change in policy? it may be that kochavi is less of a political animal than his predecessor as ramatcal, or it may be that the amuta finally prevailed over political considerations. most likely a combination of both.
interesting information. thanks
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