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Jan 18, 2023
what comes next?
I dont know what the Supreme Court will decide in the Deri case, though it seems all the Shas people do know and are flipping out in advance. As I said, I think their is their campaign to pressure the court. If they decide Deri is out, the Shas people will all say we were right, it was obvious, the Supreme Court is against Deri, against Sefardim, against the Right etc. If they let Deri serve the Shas people will eventually say their campaign was successful.
I dont even find the upcoming Supreme Court decision interesting. What I find interesting is the leadup to the decision. And more interestingly, what will happen after. Obviously if they decide in his favor that means nothing interesting will happen. If they decide against Deri, it gets exciting.
If they decide against Deri, will he resign? Will Netanyahu fire him? Will they reject the decision and ignore it. If Deri resigns or gets fired by Netanyahu will the government fall? Some voices are saying they would dismantle the coalition if that happens. It seems, some Shas people are saying, they would push through a law that will allow Deri to serve and then dismantle the coalition and go to elections to bring him back.
Would they really risk elections over this? Give up the full right wing government so quickly? they might win bigger but they might not. Big risk. The government got 64 seats which is a big win but in votes it was very close and it was more the mismanagement on the left that gave the right the big win. There is no guarantee it would be repeated.
What elections would do is be a referendum on both Deri and the legal reforms Yariv Levin recently proposed. Previously they spoke about reforms and even mentioned some issues, but they never spoke about the sweeping reforms Levin actually proposed, so it is difficult to say this is what the people wanted. Now that the people know what the reforms are, immediate elections would at least partly be a referendum on that.
But it would be a big risk. Personal positions aside, would Deri really let Shas dismantle the coalition over this and go back to elections?
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Labels:
Aryeh Deri,
Shas,
Supreme Court
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In the event that the Supreme Court rules that Deri cannot be a Minister. Even if the election outcome were to be exactly as Shas hopes, I don't see how it solves any of the legal issues.
ReplyDeleteThis whole time, Deri could have gone to the Central Election Committee and had the appointment approved. Presumably he hasn't because he knows what the outcome would be.
Instead the Government rewrote some Basic Laws for him instead.
The Government already has a Plan B by overhauling the entire Judicial System which would allow Deri to return as a Minister. The Government hopes to wrap that process up within a few months. In reality there is a chance that it will not be finalized until later in the year.
Dissolving the Knesset, calling elections, forming a Government is a process that can easily take 4 - 6 months. Then we would be back to the exact same legal challenges for Deri. The election scenario just doesn't make sense unless they are trying to put pressure on Likud to either speed up the Judicial Reforms or possibly discourage Bibi from firing Deri (as may be required by law) if Deri refuses to resign.
Why is it so important do Deri that he be a minister? He'd still be dictating policy to whoever held the position officially.
ReplyDeleteNo, I know the answer.