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Sep 25, 2019

The bad mazel of Yitzchak Pindrus strikes again

Overnight the electoral board finished the official count with a decision on some disputed ballots and ballot boxes. The final result was that UTJ dropped a mandate, despite the impressive increase in UTJ votes, and now sits at 7 mandates for Knesset, while the Likud has been given one additional mandate bumping them up to 32.  There were no other changes in the final count.

The Likud going up to 32 means Keti Shitreet, from Bet Shemesh, goes back to the 22nd Knesset as an MK again, after her first short term in the 21st Knesset.

And remember this post about Yitchak Pindrus's bad luck? Well, despite it seeming that Pindrus was lock-solid in the Knesset, he is dropping out again with UTJ's fall to 7.

If the constellations are in his favor and a government coalition is formed that will include UTJ, if the Norwegian Law ill be passed again, he could still get in. If UTJ is left out of the coming coalition, or if the Norwegian law will not be passed, Pidrus is stuck once again.

While we have no idea what will happen, if a unity government does work out and is formed, it seems to me unlikely that Pindrus will get in. Either a unity government will leave the smaller parties out, or the big parties will take almost all the ministries and leave little for other potential minor partners. Also, I suspect if a unity government is formed, it will also include an agreement for a smaller government with less ministries, as Lapid has insisted upon in the past, which means each party will get less and there will also be less available for the minor partners, and the might not even agree to pass a norwegian law. So even if UTJ gets into a unity government, the Norwegian Law might not help (though with Pindrus being number 8, even one deputy minister might be enough to get him in under a "norwegian law")

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  1. According to my calculations, if only 68 more UTJ voters had gone out and voted, they would have ended up with 8 seats (at the expense of 1 Likud seat).
    I don't follow Hebrew news -- has anyone else made this analysis?

    1. Never mind, I see that figure reported in Times of Israel and elsewhere.


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