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Nov 22, 2012

On the Cease-Fire

The cease-fire, good or bad, is here. Personally, I don't think it is so bad. I do not think it should have been done, at this point, but now that it has been done I don't think it is so bad. I am not optimistic that it will last for a significant amount of time, based on history, but it is worth giving it a chance to work out. Gaza is not a playground. Last time we went into Gaza to deal with this, under Olmert at the time, a lot of lives were lost and nothing significant was really accomplished. There is no guarantee this time would be any different. It is definitely worth giving the accomplishments we have already achieved a chance to work and deter Hamas from restarting the rocket fire. Hamas won't be so quick to start active hostilities again, considering they know how serious of a response Israel can come back with.

Hamas's reaction to the cease-fire has been celebratory. So celebratory that they have officially declared November 22 as a national holiday commemorating their victory over Israel. November 22 will now be, in Gaza, an official vacation day and schools will be closed.  (source: News1)

I am not quite sure what the big celebration is over. At best, they have committed to stop shooting rockets into Israel, and we have committed to stop shooting at them. That means, considering this as though they brought Israel to its knees means their entire goal in shooting rockets was to get the situation back to the way it was the day before they shot this round of rockets (and the anti-tank missile), 9 days ago. They have declared a holiday over the fact that they successfully turned the clock back 9 days but this time they know they can't start shooting rockets, unlike 9 days ago, or thy will risk the same, or a greater, response from Israel.

Khaled Meshaal said about the cease-fire that Israel failed in its effort to create a sense of deterrence. I don't know how he knows that, considering he agreed to stop shooting rockets. If he was not deterred, he would not have agreed to this. The future will show how deterred they were or were not - depending on how quickly they will start shooting again. The only way they can say deterrence failed is by shooting rockets again right away. And then this will be anything but a cease-fire.

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  1. "They have declared a holiday over the fact that they successfully turned the clock back 9 days"

    Apparently someone in the Hamas read Animal Farm.

  2. I wonder what Hilary told Bibi behind closed doors. Did she trade US opposition to Palestinian upgrades at the UN for a ceasefire or did she simply tell him he's not allowed to invade 'Aza?

  3. It seems that the misslies were getting close to Beit Shemesh, so it's probably best that it ended when it did. I never saw before in Israel demonstrations, calling for an all-out war, which would surely ahve resulted in soldiers being killed, also demonstrating against Bibi

  4. I think not beginning the ground war now (I say "now" because someday it will have to be done) was a very smart choice. One, because I believe that there was some sort of deal regarding Iran given in return, and two, because had the ground war started, it would have been VERY bloody and Iran would have unleashed Hizb'Allah creating a second front in the north. Then after a few very bloody days or weeks, Israel would be pressured to stop while the job was half done. Therefore not starting now was the correct choice - because in this case, doing half the job is worse than not beginning the job at all.

    It's important that everyone remember that at the moment, Hamas is one arm of Iran, Hizb'Allah is a second arm, but the heart and the brains are in Iran, and you can't eliminate an enemy by damaging an arm, you need a good head shot or center mass shot.


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