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May 9, 2022

what happens next?

One of these days the government will collapse, one way or another. It is inevitable. A narrow government of 61 is difficult enough to maintain for too long, and a government of barely 60 is even more complicated. It does not matter to me if it will take a week, a month, or 6 months, but as difficult as it is for any government in Israel to be stable and serve its term to anywhere near completion (it only happened once in Israel's history), it seems to be near impossible for a government like this to last for too much longer.

All that being said, whenever this government will make its way into the history books, I wonder what will happen with the next government that gets formed. while obviously I dont know what the makeup of the government will be, which parties will get in and which will fail to cross the minimum threshold, how many seats each will have and what type of coalition will come together, assuming either the next Knesset looks somewhat similar to the current one, or assuming elections will be avoided and attempts will be made to form a new government from the current Knesset, will they let bygones be bygones or will they work together?

Meaning, after all the verbal and emotional abuse the Likud and Bibi, along with UTJ and Shas, have heaped on Naftali Bennett personally this past year calling him the worst names (whether you think he deserved it or not), and others as well but Bennett got the brunt of it, so what happens next? Does Naftali join a Likud government and ignore the past? Does the Likud take Naftali and his party as members with positions of authority commensurate to the size of the party despite everything they called him this past year - is he suddenly kosher because he will help Bibi/Likud (assuming Likud is tasked with forming a government)?

And was this RAAM's one chance - after Bibi legitimized Mansour Abbas and Abbas joined the Bennett government, the Likud has spent the last delegitimizing Abbas and RAAM. So, is that it? Will they no longer join, or be invited to join, a future government, at least in the near future? And after they were a very unstable partner, regularly demanding more things in exchange for remaining in the government, did they overplay their hands and make themselves undesirable again?

What do you think?

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