May 10, 2021

laundering RAAM

The attempts to form a coalition until now all seemed to rely heavily on the Arab party named Raam, led by MK Mansour Abbas.

It was problematic to begin with, as Raam always supported terror and Hamas, but PM Netanyahu saw the potential for using them to form a government and he laundered them, or kashered them, and turned them into a legitimate potential coalition partner. the explanation was that they have regretted their support for terror and now are putting it aside and advancing a civilian agenda to better the lives of Israeli Arabs, and that is fine to forma  government relying on them.

Once Netanyahu kashered them, once he laundered them and turned them legitimate, even though he failed to form a government (because Smotritch refused to sit in a government relying on RAAM), they were already legitimized for Lapid and Bennett to also negotiate with Raam to potentially include them or rely on them to form a government.

With the escalation of hostilities this evening, after rockets from Gaza and Israeli retaliation, with what looks to be a few heated days ahead of us, RAAM has now announced that they will not negotiate supporting a government until the escalation and hostilities are finished - they are freezing negotiations.

With Raam freezing negotiations, I think they closed the door on supporting a government. While I dont know why anyone thought it could even work as the first time the government would need to act against Arab hostilities or against Arab interests in anyway, Raam or any other party would vote against and topple the government. For them to be included above the 61 could work, but if they completed the 61, I think they now have shown they cannot be relied upon for support.

This likely kills Lapid's (and Bennett's) chances of forming a government, that were slim to begin with and increases the likelihood of going back to elections.. 

chances are pretty high, even higher than they were last week, that Rav Don Segal is going to be right about his prediction...


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